Carabao Cup Third Round Betting Preview – 26-27 September
We’ve now reached the third round of the 2023/24 Carabao Cup, with thirty-two teams remaining in the competition. This includes the clubs who bypassed the second round due to their European involvement, including Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Brighton & Hove Albion, Aston Villa and West Ham.
As you might expect, there are a number of all-Premier League encounters and none bigger than the St James’ Park clash between Newcastle United and Manchester City. The Magpies were able chart a path to the 2023 Carabao Cup final before losing to Manchester United in the final, while City missed out on this silverware but went on to secure a historic treble.
Other top-flight match-ups include Manchester United hosting Crystal Palace, Aston Villa clashing with Everton, Brentford and Arsenal meeting in a London derby and Brighton travelling to Stamford Bridge for another mouth-watering tie. The draw means that there will be at least four Football League outfits taking place their place in the fourth round.
Who Are the Outright Favourites to Win the Carabao Cup?
| Team | Best Odds Available |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | 7/2 |
| Liverpool | 7/1 |
| Manchester United | 8/1 |
| Arsenal | 9/1 |
| Chelsea | 9/1 |
| Newcastle United | 16/1 |
| West Ham | 18/1 |
| Aston Villa | 18/1 |
| Brighton | 20/1 |
| Fulham | 40/1 |
| Brentford | 40/1 |
Manchester City have missed out on the Carabao Cup in the past two seasons after previously winning the EFL Cup on four consecutive occasions between 2018-2021. A tough draw at Newcastle means that they could feasibly exit at the third round stage of the competition, although the bookies still have them as favourites.
Liverpool were winners of this trophy two seasons ago when beating Chelsea on penalties in the final. They are trading at a similar price to the holders, with Manchester United having enjoyed a 2-0 win over Newcastle at Wembley back in February. Meanwhile, Arsenal are the other side trading at single figure odds although they also have a tricky draw.
Can Newcastle Dump Manchester City Out of Carabao Cup?
Newcastle United were able to navigate their way to the final earlier this year, although the odds suggests that they might find it tough to repeat this achievement. The Magpies are involved in the Champions League this term and it might be that Eddie Howe plays a much-changed or youthful side for a tough clash against Manchester City.
However, Newcastle do have home advantage against a City team who are highly unlikely to be at full-strength themselves. Pep Guardiola might have taken his eye off the ball as far as the Carabao Cup is concerned and we’re likely to see a young side take to the field for this one. It’s definitely worth looking out for news before you engage in EFL Cup betting for this fixture. Newcastle are 9/4 with most bookmakers to get the win at home.
Liverpool Likely to Progress at the Expense of Leicester City
Liverpool don’t have the Champions League this season and they’ll be targeting the domestic cups after being EFL Cup winners and FA Cup victors during the 2021/22 campaign. The Reds beat Chelsea in both finals, with Jurgen Klopp keen to land more silverware and we should expect a relatively strong side to line up against Leicester for a place in the last sixteen.
Klopp will be happy enough with the draw against a Championship side who lost James Maddison and Harvey Barnes last summer, while Liverpool’s outright odds could shorten on account of teams such as Manchester City or Arsenal potentially bombing out of the competition at this phase. The redmen are 1/2 to qualify, even with a likely reduced strength starting 11.
Under-Strength Gunners Might Struggle to Topple Bees
Arsenal supporters weren’t particularly bothered about the Carabao Cup last season and an early exit at the hands of Brighton hardly came as a surprise. Back in November 2022, Mikel Arteta made wholesale changes which led to a 3-1 defeat against the Seagulls and there could be some mileage in backing Brentford to subject them to a defeat at the same stage.
While the Gunners are preparing for another Premier League title assault and a return to the big money Champions League, the Bees have no such distractions and that could see Thomas Frank’s side focus hard on winning this domestic cup. The bookmakers might end up pricing them as favourites to win this fixture depending on how many first-teamers line up for the visitors. You can currently get evens on Arsenal to win away at Brentford, while the home side are 11/4.
Hammers Bidding to Win Another Trophy This Season
West Ham United had that winning feeling in the Europa Conference League last season, pulling off an unlikely success when overcoming Fiorentina in the final after a brilliant run on the continent. The supporters would dearly love to see their team follow that achievement up with a triumph at Wembley Stadium this time around.
The good news for the Hammers is that they’ve been handed a winnable clash at Lincoln in the third round of the Carabao Cup, with David Moyes’ side priced at 5/12 to claim a victory over the Red Imps. It’s a competition which only requires a handful of victories to win and the London outfit have made a bright start to the season domestically.
Can Salford Repeat Leeds Giant-Killing By Beating Burnley?
Salford City are one of the few remaining League Two teams left in the Carabao Cup, with the Manchester outfit having accounted for Leeds United in the previous round of the competition. They managed to edge out the Championship side on penalties and will now clash with Premier League new boysche last sixteen. At 6-1 with PaddyPower and Betfair, this might be beyond their reach to get past the Clarets.
With the Clarets having made a stuttering start to life in the top flight, it might be that Vincent Kompany does not make the EFL Cup any kind of priority and that could lead to another upset. Salford will be motivated to earn another money-spinning tie and the prospect of facing Manchester United in a later round is sure to have crossed the mind of Gary Neville & Co.
Could Europe-Less Chelsea Target Carabao Cup This Season?
One of the outright favourites in the Carabao Cup betting market is Chelsea and it’s easy to see the Blues having a big run in this competition. They were thwarted in both the EFL Cup and FA Cup final by Liverpool two seasons ago, although Mauricio Pochettino will want to land silverware this campaign and that can realistically only be achieved by winning this competition or the FA Cup.
Pochettino has got to try and get a whole new squad of players to gel over the coming weeks and months, although they have a home tie in the third round and will be facing a Brighton & Hove Albion side who have the extra obligation of trying to compete in the Europa League. The fact that the Seagulls have been drawn in the same group as Ajax and Marseille means they might fail to give this tournament the time of day.
Bradford and Exeter Targeting Cup Giant-Killings
Bradford City miraculously reached the EFL Cup final in 2013 when overcoming Arsenal along the way before the League Two Bantams were thrashed by Swansea at Wembley. Wind the clock forward ten years and the Yorkshire outfit remain in the fourth tier of the Football League, although they have the opportunity to pull off a cup shock in the third round.
Mark Hughes’ side have been drawn against a Middlesbrough side who started the season as one of the favourites to win the Championship although they struggled to achieve any consistency. Michael Carrick might not relish a trip to Valley Parade at this stage of the competition, with the visitors potentially showing a number of changes. Bradford are 16/5 at most bookies to get the win.
Exeter City have made a bright start to their League One campaign and the Grecians will fancy their chances of toppling a Luton Town side who are focused on cementing their place in the Premier League. The Hatters have struggled to get early points on the board in the top flight and a trip to St James’ Park represents a difficult midweek assignment.
Can Cup Specialist Emery Steer Aston Villa to Carabao Victory?
Out of all the teams in the outright betting, perhaps Aston Villa are the club who represent the best value at the prices. They have been drawn at home to Everton in the third round of the competition and they managed to overcome the Toffees 4-0 in the Premier League this season, with a second-string side potentially too strong for opponents who are focused on survival. Villa are priced at 4/5 to beat Everton; a price definitely worth considering as Everton are on a poor run of form.
Unai Emery certainly has plenty of expertise when it comes to winning cup competitions and Aston Villa might be the latest beneficiaries. The Spaniard engineered an incredible three consecutive victories in the Europa League with Sevilla between 2014-2016. He was then able to win seven trophies during his time at Paris Saint-Germain.
More recently, Emery navigated Arsenal to a Europa League final in 2019 before losing to Chelsea and there was a Europa League success with Villarreal two seasons later when beating Manchester United in the final on penalties. It would come as no surprise if Aston Villa had their name on the trophy this time around.
