Vlhova a Sound 6/1 Shot to Beat Tame Shiffrin in Levi Slalom
Races two and three of the Women’s 2023/24 FIS Alpine Ski World Cup will take place in Levi, Finland, this weekend. America’s Mikaela Shiffrin will start as the odds-on favourite for the first and probably both races.
Slalom contests, they will be raced on the Levi Black slope. With an average incline of just 30.8 percent (52 percent maximum), this relatively tame course is situated 170 kilometres north of the Arctic Circle.
Lara Gut-Behrami (left), Mikaela Shiffrin and Petra Vlhova (right). In ski racing, body shapes dictate the discipline. ©GettyImages
Six times a winner and four times a runner-up in the contest, the form book suggests Shiffrin’s short odds are fully justified. However, the best form in alpine ski racing is the most recent form. And the result of the season-opening contest in Solden points punters squarely in the direction of Petra Vlhova.
Vlhova Passed the Solden Acid Test
Two weeks ago, ahead of the Austrian race, we suggested, the Giant Slalom contest would work as an indicator of Vlhova’s fitness and form. If the race were litmus paper, she would have turned it dark red!
Our selection, Federica Brignone, gave backers a winner as the Italian took second, finishing just 0.02 seconds behind race winner Lara Gut-Behrami. Petra Vlhova was just another 0.12 seconds adrift in third. The trio were more than a second ahead of all other rivals.
Topping the list of also-rans were Sara Hector, Mata Bassino and, in a hugely disappointing show, sixth-placed Mikaela Shiffrin. The champion was 0.75 seconds slower than the fastest first-run time (set by Bassino) and almost 1.4 seconds slower than Gut-Behrami in her second run.
There were no obvious reasons for Shiffrin’s disappointing effort. There were no sudden changes to the weather conditions, her Atomic skis worked well for other racers, and she never made a clear or outstanding mistake in either run.
The speed and, more importantly, her famous second run charge was missing. In a post-race Eurosport interview, Shiffrin described her runs as “a little bit messy in some spots,” and interestingly, she calmly added, “Last season, I took quite a long time to build into my top form.”
Horses for Courses Is Fact Not Theory
Lara Gut-Behrami is primarily a Downhill and Super-G racer. She had won five Giant Slalom’s before taking her tally to six in Solden. Similarly, as previously highlighted, second-placed Federica Brignone’s forte is Super-G, followed by Giant Slalom.
Claiming a Giant Slalom medal on the steep Rettenbach slope was not an outrageous shock for either. But, unlike Petra Vlhova, their chances of reproducing that success on a relatively gentle slalom course such as Levi can be considered ‘biblical’. Accordingly, neither is racing this weekend. However, looking at the third-placed Solden effort of Petra Vlhova objectively, it is easy to predict she will replicate the result and, most probably, better it on Levi’s Slalom course.
Take the Slovakian in Sickness and in Health
Vlhova’s coach, Mauro Pini, had stated the star had missed more than a week of training before the Austrian race due to flu. No well-being issues have been reported since. It is a significant positive for the Slovakian’s supporters.
Vitally, Slalom is the 28-year-old’s strongest discipline by a considerable margin. Vlhova has won 19 World Cup Slaloms, taking second or third-placed trophies an additional 22 times. Her haul includes five successes in Levi. She took both Saturday and Sunday contests in Finland in 2020 and 2021.
Last season, she claimed a podium finish in both Levi races, which fell to old adversary Mikaela Shiffrin. Theoretically, it should be a shootout between this pair again. The winter sports betting sites certainly cannot see beyond them.
Wendy Holdener (6/1) – a pure Slalom skier – could be considered. But winning just twice while placed in 32 other World Cup Slalom races has to temper enthusiasm. 32-year-old Lena Durr (8/1) had her best-ever season in 2022/23, but she has only won one World Cup race during her long career.
Ultimately, Shiffrin’s Solden result and her press interviews suggest she is very much undercooked at this early stage of the season. As Vlhova appears in great shape, and a return to the closely separated gates can only benefit her, it is obvious the outrageous 5/1 odds offered by bet365 make her the best bet this Saturday.
