League One 2023/24 Season Preview & Promotion Odds

by Luke Andrews, 19 July 2023

In the latest instalment of our football betting previews for the 2023/24 season, I’ll focus on League One, the third tier of English Football. Plenty of teams have a realistic chance of gaining promotion to the Championship, including former Premier League teams such as Blackpool, Bolton and Portsmouth. I’ll also assess the teams who will be lucky to avoid relegation this season.

The English Football League One, sometimes known as Sky Bet League One for sponsorship reasons or simply League One in England, is the second-highest division of the English Football League and the third-tier overall in the English football league system. League One is a fascinating blend of historic and relatively new clubs, such as Stevenage. The league is notoriously unpredictable, making betting on League One very popular amongst punters.

Fleetwood Town has been in the division for the longest time, having been promoted from League Two at the end of the 2013-14 season.

There are currently eight former Premier League teams in this division, including Barnsley (1997-98), Blackpool (2010-11), Bolton Wanderers (1995-96, 1997-98, and 2001-12), Charlton Athletic (1998-99 and 2000-07), Derby County (1996-2002 and 2007-08), Portsmouth (2003-10), Reading (2006-08 and 2012-13), and Wigan Athletic (2005-13).

In this League One 2023/24 preview, we highlight the teams that could impress and document promising sides that are eyeing promotion, the teams that could miraculously impress regarding their form and stats of last season and those that could struggle.

We as well highlight the Bookmarkers promotion odds and favourites. Our focus is the highly contested league with many high-profile teams.

League One 2023/24 – The Contenders

The season finale of League One last season was pretty dramatic and entertaining. Sheffield Wednesday sealed their promotion and returned to the second tier with a 123rd-minute winner against Barnsley after rallying from a 4-0 deficit in the semi-final. Barnsley lost the play-offs by a single goal against Sheffield Wednesday and endured the second half and extra time with ten men holding on until the second half of extra time. We anticipate yet another challenging season that should be a spectacle.

Barnsley

Barnsley finished fourth with 86 points to qualify for the Play-offs. The Tykes gave a competitive challenge in the play-off final coming close to winning it in the final with ten men. If they can maintain hold of Michael Duff, which looks plausible at this stage, they would be the outright pick to win the division.

Barnsley must improve their response to conceding the first goal in games for the upcoming season. They only garnered three points from losing positions, the lowest tally among all clubs in the top four English divisions. These three points came from draws against Ipswich in August, Portsmouth in February, and MK Dons in April.

Fans of Barnsley football club have had to endure a turbulent few years. Narrowly avoiding relegation in the 2019-20 season from the Championship, in the following season, they came agonisingly close to securing promotion to the Premier League with a fifth-place finish. Fans could not attend matches that year, and when they did return, their club’s form collapsed, and they were relegated in 24th place.

This anger at the club, coupled with less-than-satisfactory player signings and coaching appointments, the club’s chairman was caught up in discussions about moving away from their historic home at Oakwell. Meanwhile, a legal battle was brewing between two ownership factions, adding to the overall gloom.

Barnsley Football Club has been charged with multiple breaches of EFL Regulations: https://www.lawinsport.com/topics/news/item/barnsley-football-club-has-been-charged-with-multiple-breaches-of-efl-regulations?utm_content=256901953&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-145208608 pic.twitter.com/BwaR0rnbSQ

— LawInSport (@LawInSport) July 14, 2023

They’ve already proven their class at this level and can easily beat a lower-division team. The fans will be left to wonder what could have been in the finals if they had eleven players in the side, as they were so close to promotion last season.

Barnsley have been busy re-inforcing their goalkeeping options, signing a remarkable four keepers. Liam Roberts, Ben Killip, Paul Cooper and Adam Hayton have all been brought in by manager Neill Collins. The club will likely prioritise signing a new centre-back as Mads Andersen has joined Luton for £3.5m.

Derby

League One is a division that is full of hard-luck stories, and Derby is a perfect example. Two seasons ago, after 14 years in English football’s second division, Derby County were relegated to the third tier for the first time since 1986 next season. One might anticipate a season recap for a team that found itself demoted to be a chronicle of a disastrous year, possibly featuring a revolving door of managers unable to inspire a squad that seemed to lack understanding of the honour of donning the jersey.

However, this wasn’t the case with Derby, who, under the guidance of Wayne Rooney, almost pulled off an incredible feat by staying up, despite being docked 21 points after the club entered administration. The penalty meant they finished 23rd on 34 points. They would have had 55 without that deduction, good enough to finish 17th in the 24-team league.

However, it wasn’t to be. Rooney moved to American pastures, and life continued in League One with Paul Warne taking charge of the team. Although the Rams were one of the favourites to go up, they lost out on a play-off spot on the penultimate day. Derby fans will look back on a disastrous spell in March when they lost four of their five games (Plymouth, Fleetwood, Peterborough and Ipswich).

They finished seventh last season, and with some of the top teams promoted, we expect them to impress this campaign. Their impressive season was plagued by a vast number of draws (thirteen) that tainted their progress, and if they can kill off games in this campaign, they have a clear chance for automatic promotion.

Derby has been active in the transfer market, signing left-back Callum Elder from Hull, goalkeeper Josh Vickers from Rotherham, centre-forward Conor Washington from Rotherham and right-back Kane Wilson from Bristol City.

There has also been plenty of players leaving the club. Kwaku Oduroh, a 20-year-old right-back, joined Rochdale in the National League, while 35-year-old centre-forward David McGoldrick moved to Notts County in League Two. Curtis Davies, a 38-year-old centre-back, transferred to Cheltenham in League One. All these transfers were free. Jason Knight, a 22-year-old central midfielder, and Krystian Bielik, a 25-year-old defensive midfielder, moved to Championship clubs Bristol City and Birmingham, respectively, although their transfer fees were not disclosed.

Additionally, 34-year-old centre-back James Chester and 35-year-old centre-back Richard Stearman are without a club.

Bolton

Bolton, managed by Ian Evatt, are serious prospects, having narrowly lost to Barnsley in the play-off semi-final, and they will look to continue their rise from League Two to the top six of League One in three seasons. They finished fifth last season despite having a poor goal-scoring record managing just sixty-two goals over the forty-six games.

Bolton Wanderers saw a resurgence in the 1990s when they reached the Premier League and had notable cup runs. They won promotion to the Premier League in the 1996-97 season and spent eleven consecutive seasons in the top flight. During this period, they reached the final of the League Cup in 2004 and advanced twice to the knockout stages of the UEFA Cup. However, subsequent relegations brought them down to League One by 2016. The club faced severe financial challenges, leading to administration in 2019. Fortunately, new owners acquired the club, preventing its expulsion from the English Football League (EFL).

Their biggest strength was their defence, which was the second best in the league, conceding just thirty-six goals, with Ipswich Town the best defence with thirty-five goals conceded. The new season comes with much promise if they can replicate their defensive heroics and work on their attacking prowess, making them more productive.

Like their rivals, Bolton has been active in the transfer market. Nathan Baxter, a 24-year-old goalkeeper, joined from Chelsea U21, while Josh Dacres-Cogley, a 27-year-old right-back, transferred from Tranmere Rovers in League Two. Joel Coleman, a 27-year-old goalkeeper, came from Ipswich in the Championship. All these transfers were free. Additionally, Dan Nlundulu, a 24-year-old centre-forward, and Will Forrester, a 22-year-old centre-back, joined from clubs in the Championship and League One, respectively, although their transfer fees were not disclosed.

💬 Matt Craddock wants Wanderers’ youngsters to keep showing their quality after hitting the goal trail at Longridge Town.#bwfc

— Bolton Wanderers B Team and Academy (@BWFCBandAcademy) July 19, 2023

Several players have left Bolton Wanderers. Joel Dixon, a 29-year-old goalkeeper, moved to Hartlepool in the National League, and Adam Senior, a 21-year-old centre-back, transferred to Halifax Town in the National League. Mackenzie Chapman, a 20-year-old goalkeeper, joined Blackpool in League One. All these transfers were free.

Additionally, MJ Williams, a 27-year-old defensive midfielder, and Lloyd Isgrove, a 30-year-old right winger, left the club, but their new clubs and transfer fees were not disclosed. Elias Kachunga, a 31-year-old centre-forward, and Kieran Lee, a 35-year-old defensive midfielder, are currently without a club.

Reading

Reading is another club that has been forced to suffer due to mismanagement off the pitch. In November 2021, Reading Football Club was penalised with a six-point deduction for violating the EFL’s profitability and sustainability rules. The then manager, Veljko Paunović, departed, and Paul Ince took over as interim manager. In May 2022, Ince was made the permanent manager. Just a year later, Reading had another six-point deduction for similar breaches, and their form suffered with a run of eight games without a win. Ince departed the club, and Noel Hunt took over as interim manager.

The club is due to appear in court on August 9 over an unpaid tax bill. If the club manages to pay off its outstanding debts to HMRC before the court date, the case could potentially be withdrawn or dismissed. The club has already faced charges from the English Football League (EFL) for not paying players on time and in full and for breaching EFL regulations. The winding-up petition over unpaid tax issued by HMRC could be resolved by payment of the debt or by arranging a payment plan. In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to the club going into administration. This is the fourth time Reading has been issued with a winding-up petition, having avoided total collapse on three previous occasions.

The Royals haven’t participated at this level since 2002 and would be eager to reinstate their Championship status.

As money is tight at Reading, it’s no surprise that the two players they signed are free transfers. Sam Smith (not the singer) and Harvey Knibbs, both centre-forwards, signed from Cambridge United.

Reading’s departures raised some much-needed cash.

George Puscas, a 27-year-old centre-forward, transferred to Genoa in Serie A for a fee of £2.61m (€3m). Tom Ince, a 31-year-old right winger, moved to Watford in the Championship for a fee of £50k. Yakou Méïté, a 27-year-old left winger, joined Cardiff in the Championship on a free transfer, as did Luke Southwood, a 25-year-old goalkeeper, who moved to Cheltenham in League One. Naby Sarr, a 29-year-old centre-back, left for Al-Markhiya SC in the Stars League, but his transfer fee was not disclosed.

🏆 Congratulations to on loan #ReadingFC striker George Puscas on gaining promotion to Serie A with Genoa!

An obligation for the Italian side buy him for €4m will now be activated this summer. pic.twitter.com/Oosqm8mU29

— RFC Latest (@RFCLatest) May 6, 2023

Lucas João a 29-year-old centre-forward, Liam Moore, a 30-year-old centre-back, Shane Long, a 36-year-old centre-forward, Dejan Tetek, a 20-year-old defensive midfielder; and Scott Dann, a 36-year-old centre-back, are all currently without a club.

Plymouth, Ipswich, and Sheffield Wednesday were the promoted teams the previous season. There will be some brand-new faces to look forward to. Stevenage, Northampton, and the winners of the play-offs, Carlisle United, Orient will be joined by Reading, Wigan, and Blackpool, who were relegated from the Championship. This League One season seems fairly open on paper.

League One 2023/24 – The Hopefuls

With the start of the new season in early August, we’ve looked at the latest promotional favourites in League One. However, these two clubs will feel they are also in with a shout of at least making the play-offs.

Peterborough

Posh fans will be mystified as to why they were not at Wembley after thrashing Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 in the first leg of their play-off quarterfinal. They looked on course to win progress until Sheffield Wednesday produced the miracle to settle the aggregate to 5 – 5 to break the hearts of the Peterborough faithful.

Sheffield Wednesday began their quest for a comeback by reducing the deficit in the first half. Marvin Johnson was fouled, resulting in a penalty that Michael Smith converted, giving the Owls an early lead. After half an hour, Lee Gregory added a second goal, reigniting their hopes of a miraculous comeback. After the break, Reece James scored the third goal, leaving Sheffield Wednesday just one goal away from levelling the aggregate score with Peterborough. Liam Palmer scored in the dying moments of stoppage time, forcing extra time. A Lee Gregory own goal gave Peterborough the advantage, but Callum Paterson scored at the death to equalise. Sheffield Wednesday’s flawless performance, combined with a missed penalty from Peterborough, condemned Peterborough to another season at least in League One.

Last season, Jonson Clarke-Harris scored 27 league goals for the team, so keeping him might be vital if they wish to compete for the title.

As you can see from the table above, Clarke-Harris played at the Championship level the season before, scoring 12 goals in 41 appearances.

Portsmouth

Despite being unbeaten in their final 11 league games the previous season, Pompey fell six points short of claiming a play-off spot. The impressive performance was an incredible feat that would leave their fans to wonder what would have happened if they started playing well at the beginning of the season.

The new League One season comes with much hope for the side, hoping to replicate their incredible performance of the second half of the season.

League One 2023/24 – The Strugglers

To have winners in football, you also need losers, and these are two clubs that we feel may struggle in League One. Success for these clubs will be maintaining their League One status for another season.

Leyton Orient

It would be easy to write an entire article on Leyton Orient as their recent history could be compared to a series of Ted Lasso!

The years between 2014 and 2017 were a tumultuous time for Leyton Orient Football Club, starting with the club’s acquisition by Italian entrepreneur Francesco Becchetti. The 2014-15 season was marked by a revolving door of managers and culminated in the club’s demotion from League One.

Despite coming close to promotion in the 2015-16 season, the following season saw them hire five different managers, and Becchetti was charged with failing to pay taxes. The turmoil affected the team, and they dropped into non-league, ending their 112-year tenure in the Football League.

In June 2017, Nigel Travis, the head of Dunkin’ Brands, took over the club and two years later, they managed to bounce back to League Two in April 2019 under the leadership of manager Justin Edinburgh. Sadly, Edinburgh passed away two months later, leading to a series of temporary and short-lived managerial appointments.

They finished 17th, 11th and 13th in the 2021-22 season in League Two. The 2022-23 season was a triumphant one for the club, as they earned promotion back to League One after an eight-year absence,

Despite winning the Skybet League Two and gaining promotion, they did not impress in terms of performance as they scored just sixty-one goals, equivalent to Portsmouth numbers, a side that finished eighth in League One. Although they won the title with four games to spare We expect them to find life tough in League One as they will face superior defences than the ones in the league before, and given their attacking power, they could struggle to get goals this season.

Stevenage Town

Stevenage are a fairly new team. The 2023–24 season is the 48th season in the history of Stevenage and their first season back in League One since the 2013–14 season, following their promotion from League Two in the previous season.

They finished second to Leyton Orient and scored sixty-one goals as well. Northampton Town had a better scoring record but only outdid the top two teams by a single goal. They will face the same trouble of inspiring their teams to get goals against much better defensive structures and in a more challenging league. We foresee all the promoted teams struggling in the ruthless League One, especially if they don’t sort out their attacking frailties; they could battle relegation from the onset.

The club has been busy in the transfer market, bringing in eight players, but letting eleven go, including Danny Rose, who scored 38 goals in his 141 games for Mansfield.

League One – Youngsters to Watch

Football League One is an excellent platform for providing valuable minutes for some of the best young talent. Here are a few of the Football League One’s rising stars.

Luke Woolfenden, Ipswich Town

As Ipswich can confirm, strong academies help teams handle the shock of being dropped from the Championship. Several young players have lately benefited from Tractor Boys’ development. Luke Woolfenden will strive to emulate their former defenders, Adam Webster and Tyrone Mings, signed by Premier League clubs. Woolfenden had only featured in three league games for Ipswich before this season’s start, but he has started five of the club’s six league games. Paul Lambert put his faith in the 20-year-old, and he has rewarded him by leading the team to an unblemished start.

Sean Roughan, Lincoln City

the nineteen-year-old Irish footballer who plays for Lincoln City. He recently signed a new two-year contract after an impressive debut season featuring fifty-two times for his side. The defender is among the most promising talents in League One and is expected to flourish once again as they eye for a League One play-off slot in their quest for promotion to the Championship.

Kyle Joseph, Blackpool

The maestro featured thirty-seven times, scoring nine goals for Oxford last season. We expect him to improve his game with sufficient League One experience should get the ground running this campaign. The twenty-one-year-old Scottish International is one of the League One rising stars that we predict will go all the way and impress in the 23-24 campaign.

League One Bookmaker’s Odds

Derby (7/4) has the best promotional odds and favourites to win the League One title. Bolton sits second with 11/4 odds, while Peterborough has 3/1 odds. I believe there is more to come from Barnsley (3/1) this campaign, and I have them as my favourites to win and get promoted.

The third tier is a brutal battleground, with teams vying to advance to the Championship – the final step before reaching the Premier League.

I’ve analysed teams with a strong chance of winning the title and potential favourites for the play-off qualification. I have also spotlighted those at risk of relegation, teams that might face challenges this season, and those that could potentially surprise us.

For sports betting fans, I’ve outlined the bookmakers’ favourites and provided relevant statistics to help them choose the most suitable market. Our League One preview wouldn’t be complete without showcasing some of the division’s rising stars. These young, promising players are worth watching for their skill and eagerness to excel.

For those interested in other tiers of English football’s pyramid, check out our promotion and relegation from the Championship betting guide.