National League 2023/24 Promotion Odds

by , 6 July 2023

The National League is arguably one of the hardest leagues to escape from, yet it has produced some of the best action outside of the top flight in recent years. The competition is intense, with former giants like Oldham Athletic desperate to return to the EFL. Ahead of the upcoming season, join us as we assess which clubs could claim the National League title.

National League Preview

The Premier League stands as the pinnacle of English football, renowned as the world’s top league. Below it, in descending order, is the Championship, League One, League Two, and finally, the National League, which is the fifth tier of English football. As so many games are played in this division, upsets are always likely, which makes it very popular with those who like betting on the Championship or lower league football.

The National League is the highest semi-professional level in the nationwide English football hierarchy. It consists of twenty-four teams, with the top team and the play-off winner earning promotion to the EFL League Two. Conversely, the bottom two teams face relegation to either the National League North or South. Teams in this division also compete in two domestic cups: the FA Cup and the FA Trophy.

For a while, only one team was promoted from the league, which meant it was incredibly difficult to escape from, and although this has increased to two, the quality of teams in this league has increased in recent years.

The reigning champions are Wrexham Football Club, celebrating their first title win. Their incredible tally of 111 points was enough to see off a spirited Notts County, who themselves had amassed 107 points.

The most successful clubs in this league are Barnet and Macclesfield Town, each boasting three titles. The official schedule of fixtures was released on July 5, with the league kick-off planned for August 5.

In anticipation of the 23/24 season, we will provide a comprehensive National League preview. This will include an analysis of the top contenders, potential dark horses that could surprise us, and teams that might face difficulties.

The final segment of our preview will spotlight promising young players who could significantly impact the season based on bookmakers’ insights.

National League 2023/24 – The Contenders

Let’s look closely at the favourites to clinch the National League title. We’ll examine the standout performers from the previous season and some of the teams that were demoted from the Football League Two but have a strong chance for promotion. The odds for National League promotion are pretty balanced, given that the play-offs are battled out by the teams that finish between the second and seventh positions in a six-team play-off.

Chesterfield

The side that lost in the play-off finals agonisingly on penalties at the expense of Notts County in May has the best National League odds to be promoted. We expect they have had enough time to feel sorry for themselves and make a fierce quest for automatic promotion in this campaign. They will be motivated by the Wrexham fairy tale story of losing the 2022 play-off, winning the 2022-23 National League title, and gaining automatic promotion to the Football League Two.

Despite not achieving the ultimate goal of promotion, the season wasn’t a failure. The team finished third, their best since descending to this level, and established a distinct style and identity. A strong bond was formed between the players and fans, attracting larger crowds than in some of their EFL days. They reached the FA Cup third round and have a more balanced squad with standout players. The future looks promising.

Highlights of the season included dominating the eventual champions, Wrexham, starting the season with a 10-game unbeaten streak, and holding West Brom to a thrilling 3-3 draw. They also thrashed Torquay United 5-1 both at home and away and made impressive comebacks against Southend United and Eastleigh.

However, there were disappointments, such as losing three games in a week to Maidenhead United, Dagenham and Redbridge, and Eastleigh, and going nine games without a win in February. Losing at Wembley on penalties was heartbreaking.

Liam Mandeville was the standout player of the year, with ten goals and 14 assists. He was consistent and a team player. Jeff King, Jamie Grimes, Mike Jones, and Armando Dobra also had excellent performances. However, Lucas Covolan and George Cooper fell short of expectations. The season provided valuable lessons for manager Paul Cook. He now understands the need for having a Plan B and Plan C and better scheduling of rescheduled games. The team fell short in the small details in big games, showing a hint of vulnerability that cost them.

Improvements can be made in several areas. They need to score more goals, keep more clean sheets, and prevent visiting teams from taking home points. They must also retain their best players and add quality in other key areas.

Predictions for the next season are optimistic. They have what it takes to become champions, but it won’t be easy. They will have to handle the pressure of being favourites. Oldham Athletic, Southend United, Hartlepool United, Bromley, Boreham Wood, Barnet, Woking, and Solihull Moors are expected to be competitive, so it won’t be easy.

Oldham Athletic

Oldham is the team most eager to restore their pride, having been relegated in the 2021-22 season from the Football League for the first time in 115 years. They are the first Premier League side to sink in National League depth in the Premier League era.

Now that Wrexham is no longer in the fifth tier, they are the reigning unicorn of the division as the most prominent team with the biggest fan base. The Latics will make a serious effort to end their stay in their second season, with the stewardship of former Everton man David Unsworth expected to provide significant motivation this campaign.

The club’s early success came in the 1910s when they finished second in the First Division in the 1914–15 season. However, they were relegated in 1923 and did not return to top-flight football until 1991, when they won the Second Division title.

Oldham Athletic’s most successful period in modern times came under the management of Joe Royle, who led the club to the League Cup final in 1990 and guided them to the top flight for the first time in 68 years. After their relegation from the Premier League in 1994, the club experienced financial difficulties and fell to the third tier by 1997.

Last season was disappointing for a team of their stature, finishing in 12th place, 50 points shy of the champions Wrexham. However, Oldham fans will hope they start the new season in the same way they ended the last as they were unbeaten in the final six games (four wins, two draws).

Mike Fondop-Talum was Oldham’s top-scorer with eleven league goals, including a quick-fire double in the 3-0 away win over Yeovil. However, the Englishman needs to curb his aggression having been sent off twice last season, the last being against Wrexham in the 5-1 away defeat.

Oldham has made a few signings to strengthen their squad. Centre-back Charlie Raglan has joined from League One Cheltenham. The 30-year-old has played 114 games at League One level and 104 games in League Two. Transfermarkt value him at €250k, so Oldham snapping him up on free looks like good business. The Latics also have re-enforced the midfield with Dan Ward and Josh Lundstram joining the club. Their attacking options have also been improved with the signing of Kurt Willoughby. The 25-year-old scored 27 goals in 85 games in the National League North.

National League 2023/24 – The Other Contenders

While Chesterfield and Oldham are the clear favourites to top the National League 2023/24 table, there are no guarantees, especially at this level. These three clubs will be hoping there are there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Rochdale

The newly relegated side finished bottom of the fourth-tier last season. They will play the National League for the first time and are eager to restore their Football League status. They will hope they have the suitable structures and manpower to be superior to the other sides in the National League. They are third favourites by the bookies to win the league but have to improve their rusty form of just nine wins from forty-six games, with both defences and attack needing to improve to achieve success at this level.

Hartlepool

Hartlepool enjoyed two seasons in the Football League after being promoted in the 2020/21 season. They were second last in the fourth tier and were relegated back to the National League. The Pools will hope their team has immersed some Football League experience and will reign supreme against the side in the fifth tier. They will campaign for a quick promotion in their first season at the National League.

Southend

The other darling of the National League, with a huge fan base after Oldham. Southend missed out on the play-offs and a possible promotion last season when they finished eighth in the table. The Shrimpers will hope their third season in the fifth tier is their last as they contemplate promotion to the Football League. Manager Kevin Maher has the responsibility to inspire the side.

National League 2023/24 – The Hopefuls

We highlight the newly promoted teams that come to the National League as underdogs but have the potential to surprise and upset the teams regarded as the Goliaths in the league. These teams come in better form and are more ambitious, having experienced the excitement of performing at a higher level than last season and fighting for promotion to greater heights.

Oxford City

Oxford City finished third in the National League South. They were winners of the promotional play-off thumping St. Albans 4 – 0 in the final to qualify for the fifth tier for the first time in their history.

They have been fierce in the FA Cup, challenging the top sides. In the 2017-18 season, they beat football league opposition Colchester 1 – 0 and reached the FA Cup first round for a second successive season the following year but were knocked out by League Two side Tranmere Rovers in the replay. In the 2020-21 season, they knocked out Northampton, a league team.

They had an impressive campaign but had to kill off games as they had the second-highest number of draws in their league, fifteen, eclipsed by Chippenham Town, who had seventeen. We have seen how brave they have been against the top sides in the FA Cup and, thus, won’t shy off from challenging the top boys despite this being their debut season in the National League.

Ebbsfleet United

The Northfleet side were the best players in the National League South, winning the league with over a century of points (103). They had the best attack, scoring one hundred and ten and conceded forty-seven goals in an impressive season. They beat second place, Dartford, with twenty points to earn promotion back to the National League. They were relegated on a weighted points-per-game basis in 2020 when the season ended due to the looming health crisis. They would bring an excellent goal-scoring record to the fifth tier and be an interesting team with exciting and intense attacking flair.

AFC Fylde

AFC Fylde came into being after Two current teams were a merger of Kirkham Town and Wesham. The twenty-five-year-old club earned their bragging rights in 2007-08 after winning the FA Vase; they declared that by 2017 they would play in the Conference National and, by 2022, be in the Football League. An ambitious fate that started rather implosive gaining for promotion in ten seasons between 2007 and 2017. They were relegated back to the National League North in the 2019-20 season after the season was cut short due to the pandemic. They now have a chance to start again and relive their dream of reaching the Football League, which is reasonably achievable.

National League 2023/24 – The Strugglers

We highlight the remnants from last season’s relegation struggle. We believe the following teams, who had a poor record and just survived the drop, will have a tough time reinspiring themselves in the coming season. That doesn’t mean the promoted teams from the lower division and the relegated teams from the Football League have better National League odds of surviving or being promoted. We believe it would take a lot of grit to get themselves going and perform better than last season.

Maidenhead United

Maidenhead United survived to stay in the National League by just two points. They are the favourites with the National League odds to be relegated. Their heroics last season were more of Torquay United not taking their chances than the excellence of the Magpies. The new season provides new challenges, and with the relegation of the four poor sides than them, they have to deliver better to improve their performance, especially in front of goal. They were the lowest scorers outside the relegated teams with forty-seven goals. They won five games in a row to keep their survival hopes alive; thus, they must maintain the same level throughout the season to stay clear of the red zone throughout the campaign and prevent a close shave.

Maidenhead’s quest to stay in this division could be boosted if former player if Max Kilman signs to Napoli for the rumoured fee of €40m. The club inserted a 20% sell-on clause when he moved to Wolves.

York City

York City followed closely in the relegation battle and survived by three points. They, however, had a better scoring record and a better goal difference as one of the second-best teams defensively in the bottom half. I don’t mean the National League sides that struggled last season will have a brutal campaign, but it will be hard to be motivated by the newcomers in the league. The promoted teams are incredibly excited to be at a new level and compete with the elites, while those relegated from the Football League Two are eager to restore their status; thus, the teams in this space have a tough time motivating themselves in their capacity.

Dorking Wanderers

The team with the second-worst defensive record in the National League last season conceded ninety-one goals, only bettered by the league bottlers Maidstone United who conceded one hundred and four goals. They collected enough points to stay afloat and away from the relegation struggle, with this season presenting a new opportunity to work on their defensive flaws. It’s an urgent mitigation to keep their side in the National League as they were not inspiring in front of goal to compensate for their frailties in defence. Bookmaker’s Odds

This section highlights the National League odds in the upcoming season. The National League promotion odds have Chesterfield, who endured a harrowing and heartbreaking season, as the resilient side to win the title. The Play-off’s heartbreak motivated Wrexham to win the National League last season and should be enough to guide them to automatic promotion. The National League relegation odds at £5 betting sites in the UK have Maidenhead as the team favourites to face the drop, having survived last season by two points.

National League Promotion Odds 2023/24
Team Promotion Odds
Chesterfield 19/10
Oldham 11/2
Rochdale 13/2
Hartlepool 13/2
Woking 7/1
Boreham Wood 9/1
AFC Fylde 12/1
Barnet 12/1
Solihull Moors 14/1
Bromley 14/1
Southend 14/1
Eastleigh 14/1
Dag/Red 16/1
Ebbsfleet 16/1
Halifax 20/1
Kidderminster 20/1
York City 20/1
Gateshead 22/1
Oxford City 33/1
Wealdstone 33/1
Dorking 33/1
Altrincham 50/1
Aldershot 50/1
Maidenhead United 66/1

National League – Youngsters to Watch

The National League talents section highlights the star’s youthful superstars who could perform well. They are the players who have the potential to go all the way to the top of the pyramid if they can impress their sides’ National League campaign.

Josh Stokes

The new Aldershot Town player was a real bargain for the National League side to convince him to sign for them amid vital interests from other sides higher in the English football hierarchy. The former AFC Sudbury winger is just nineteen years old and compensates for what he doesn’t have in diminutive stature with superb quality and tactical ability. He was a real gem for his side and an influential part in his side’s promotion as a very productive and effective wide player, an aspect his side seemingly lacked last season.

Tyrese Sinclair

Twenty-Year-Old Rochdale attacker is the son of Frank Sinclair, the Academy manager of Doncaster Rovers. He had a short loan spell at Altrincham last season, scoring five goals in eleven games. He will be tasked with inspiring the side that finished bottom of last season’s Football League Two.

Andrew Dallas

The twenty-three-year-old attacker plays for Solihull Moors with an impressive loan spell at Chesterfield. The youngest player on the National League scoreboard with twenty goals is one we think will impress, and the National League rising star can do better this season to improve his tally. He is physically strong, as he featured in forty-eight games, rarely sidelined in the injury bed, showing he can get better this season as one of the bright stars in the league.

National League – First Round of Fixtures

The anticipation is building as the release of the fixtures has marked the countdown to the new season, scheduled to begin on August 5.

One of the intriguing matchups will be between Chesterfield and Dorking Wanderers, with the former seeking to overcome their heartbreak from last season’s Promotion Final. This time, the clash will take place at the SMH Group Stadium.

Meanwhile, Oldham, considered title contenders, will start their campaign on the road against Southend under the guidance of David Unsworth and his revamped team. Woking, after experiencing play-off disappointment, will face newly-promoted Kidderminster Harriers. After returning to the National League, AFC Fylde will kick off their season against Maidenhead United, while Solihull Moors, now managed by Andy Whing, will host Eastleigh.

The National League has received plenty of coverage, especially with the Wrexham involvement last season. They have set the stage for other teams to keep up the heat and maintain the standard.

In the National League preview, we highlighted the teams who have a chance of winning the competition, those that could struggle and the season’s surprise package. We’ve set the scene for an exciting season of intense football especially given the unpredictable nature of the teams in this league. In the National League Preview 23-24, we also highlighted some promising talents that could have the potential to play at a higher level of football.

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