2024 Champions League Final Betting – Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

by Luke Andrews, 31 May 2024

The biggest game in European club football, the Champions League final, takes place at the weekend at England’s Wembley Stadium. The most successful team in the Champions League, Real Madrid, takes on surprise finalists Borussia Dortmund. Join our resident football expert, Luke Andrews, as he previews the action and shares his betting tips.

Spanish giants Real Madrid can rightly claim to be the kings of European football. They have won the European Cup and the subsequent Champions League a remarkable 14 times, including the first five editions between 1955 and 1960. Of the seventeen occasions they have reached the final, they have only failed to win it three times, the last being 43 years ago in 1981.

Their opponents on Saturday night, Borussia Dortmund, have a much more modest record in the Champions League. Their 3-1 final victory over Juventus in the 1996-97 season was the only time they have claimed the trophy, although they were beaten finalists in 2013 (lost 2-1 to German rivals Bayern Munich) with the final held at Wembley.

Although the best Champions League betting sites have the Spanish side as clear favourites (13/10), the game is far from a foregone conclusion. There have already been shocks in the other two European Cup competitions (Atalanta 3 0 v Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League & Olympiakos 1 0 v Fiorentina in the UEFA Europa Conference League), so if the Germans can overcome Real (7/4), it would complete a hattrick of upsets.

With this in mind, join Luke as he previews the game and shares betting tips worth considering in your last chance to bet on club football before the attention turns to betting on the Euros next month.

2024 Champions League Final Betting – Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

Matchup: Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

Date & Time: Saturday, 1 June 2024, 20:00

Venue: Wembley Stadium, London

2024 Champions League Final Betting Match Odds: Borussia Dortmund 7/4, Draw 5/2 and Real Madrid 13/10.

League Standings & Statistics: (for comparison)

Borussia Dortmund: Position: 5th in Bundesliga – Points: 63.

Home Performance: 1.94 PPG, 88% Scoring Rate at Home, 1.29 Goals Conceded Per Game. Away Performance: 1.76 PPG, 88% Scoring Rate Away, 1.24 Goals Conceded Per Game.

Domestically in the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen stole the show, finishing 1st with 90 points, 17 ahead of runners-up Stuttgart and 27 points clear of Dortmund. Despite Dortmund starting the season well, going unbeaten in their first nine (six wins, three draws), an indifferent spell in November / December when they drew three and lost three saw them lose ground.

Real Madrid: Position: 1st in La Liga – Points: 95.

Home Performance: 2.68 PPG, 89% Scoring Rate at Home, 0.47 Goals Conceded Per Game. Away Performance: 2.32 PPG, 100% Scoring Rate Away, 0.89 Goals Conceded Per Game.

While Dortmund struggled in their domestic league, Real Madrid won theirs at a canter, finishing ten points ahead of Barcelona in second place and only lost one league game all season (3-1 v Atletico Madrid in September). They only dropped other points with draws against Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano (x2), Real Betis, Atletico Madrid, Valencia and two draws in their last two games after the league was already won (Villarreal and Real Betis).

Recent Form:

Borussia Dortmund’s end-of-season form has been inconsistent, with four wins, a draw and a defeat. They suffered a 3-0 loss to Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga but bounced back with a 4-0 victory over Darmstadt in the last game of the season.

Real Madrid had an excellent end to the season, winning nine out of nine before drawing the last two league games of the campaign. Seeing some players rested wasn’t a total surprise, as the title was already wrapped up. However, Carlo Ancelotti is likely to have been annoyed with his players in the 4-4 draw with Villarreal. Real was cruising 4-1 at the break but conceded three goals in ten minutes to drop three points.

Real Madrid have had the upper hand in the last six meetings between the two, winning three of them, including a thrilling 3-2 the last time they met in 2017. In that game, Madrid were two up within twelve minutes thanks to goals from Borja Mayoral and Cristiano Ronaldo. A brace of goals on either side of the break from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang drew the Germans level before Lucas Vázquez scored the winner with just over ten minutes left to play.

The last time Dortmund beat Real Madrid was in April ten years ago. Two goals from Marco Reus gave them a 2-0 win. Real Madrid was awarded a penalty in the game, but Ángel Di María missed with the spot kick.

2024 Champions League Final Expected Line-Ups – Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid

Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Maatsen, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, Ryerson; Can, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Füllkrug.

NO FEAR…

Antonio Rüdiger – "Do I fear the Champions League final and Dortmund? I fear only of God. At the end of the day we are human beings, you have no reason to fear any human being."

Niclas Füllkrug…

⚫🟡#BVB pic.twitter.com/SRw75c4dl3

— Borussia Dortmund English (@BVB09_English) May 31, 2024

The German’s main goal threat is likely to come from 31-year-old Niclas Füllkrug, who scored a vital goal in the first leg of the semi-final against PSG (1-0). Defender Mats Hummels scored in the second leg to give Dortmund a 2-0 aggregate win.

Real Madrid (4-3-1-2): Courtois; Mendy, Nacho, Rüdiger, Carvajal; Kroos, Camavinga, Valverde; Bellingham; Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo.

People laughed when Birmingham retired Jude Bellingham's shirt when he was 17, after just 44 appearances.

How things have changed 😯 pic.twitter.com/tqmbkcD0iO

— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) May 31, 2024

Real Madrid have no less than four players who have scored at least ten goals for the Spanish champions. Jude Bellingham, the Real Madrid player of the year, leads the scoring with 19 league goals (four in the Champions League), but Vinícius Júnior has 15 (five in the Champions League), Joselu has 10 (five in the Champions League) and Rodrygo also has 10 (and also five in the Champions League).

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Injuries and Absences:

Borussia Dortmund:

Ramy Bensebaini (Out). Sébastien Haller (Doubtful). Julien Duranville (Doubtful). Mateu Morey (Doubtful).

Real Madrid:

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Out). David Alaba (Out). Andrii Lunin (Doubtful).

Borussia Dortmund’s Ramy Bensebaïni is out of the game, as is Aurélien Tchouaméni and David Alaba for Real Madrid. Bensebaïni, who is good in aerial duels and blocking and ball interception, is likely to be the biggest miss for either side, but there are reports that Thibaut Courtois might start in goal for Madrid as Andriy Lunin has been struggling with injury.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Tactical Considerations

Borussia Dortmund:

Strategy Focus: Borussia Dortmund will likely focus on quick transitions and attacking down the wings, utilising the pace and creativity of Sancho and Adeyemi. They will aim to exploit Real Madrid’s weaknesses in aerial duels and defending counter-attacks.

Potential Adjustments: Dortmund might switch to a more defensive setup if they gain an early lead, bringing on more defensive-minded players to protect their advantage.

Key Player Battles:

Julian Brandt vs. Toni Kroos: Brandt’s ability to find spaces and create chances will be tested against Kroos’ control and distribution. Brandt’s 11 assists in the Bundesliga show his creative prowess.

Nico Schlotterbeck vs. Vinícius Júnior: Schlotterbeck’s defensive solidity will be crucial in containing Vinícius, who has scored 15 goals in La Liga this season.

Real Madrid:

Strategy Focus: Real Madrid will look to dominate possession and control the game in Dortmund’s half, using their technical midfield to create chances. They will focus on exploiting spaces with through balls and quick combinations.

Potential Adjustments: Real Madrid might bring on more attacking players if they are trailing, aiming to increase their goal-scoring threat late in the game.

Key Player Battles:

Jude Bellingham vs. Emre Can: Bellingham’s dynamic midfield play and goal-scoring ability (19 goals in La Liga) will be pivotal against Can’s defensive responsibilities.

Rodrygo vs. Mats Hummels: Rodrygo’s speed and dribbling can trouble Hummels, who will rely on his experience and positioning to neutralise the threat.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Statistical Insights

Borussia Dortmund have a solid defensive record with six clean sheets in the Champions League, but Real Madrid’s average of 2.17 goals per match in the competition indicates robust offensive capability.

Dortmund’s aerial duel success rate is 54%, which Real Madrid’s technical players could exploit. The game may be decided by Dortmund’s ability to withstand Real Madrid’s possession and creativity.

2024 Champions League Final – Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Betting Tips

Top Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (8/11) – Historical matches between these teams have seen over 2.5 goals frequently, and both sides have strong offensive records.

Bet suggestion 2: Real Madrid to Win (13/10) – Real Madrid have a strong unbeaten streak and superior league performance.

Bet suggestion 3: Both Teams to Score (4/6) – Both teams have high scoring rates and have scored consistently in recent matches.

Bet suggestion 4: Vinícius Júnior to Score Anytime (3/2) – With 15 goals in La Liga, Vinícius is a key offensive player for Real Madrid.

Vinicius Junior – Creativity pic.twitter.com/pFc29tgXRi

— 𝐕𝐉𝐑  (@TeamVini7) May 29, 2024

Bet suggestion 5: Borussia Dortmund First Half Clean Sheet (1/1) – Dortmund have an excellent defensive record in the first half of their recent matches.

Scorer Tip: Jude Bellingham to Score Anytime (2/1) – Bellingham’s goal-scoring form in the Champions League and La Liga makes him a strong candidate. He also will be keen to put on a show at Wembley, having started his professional career at Birmingham in the 2019/20 season.

“Although I suspect Jude Bellingham will create the headlines, I feel that Jadon Sancho could also be in the limelight. The Manchester United man has had a nightmare couple of years but could still claim club football’s greatest prize. The 24-year-old is priced at 14/1 to open the scoring and 5/1 to score at any time.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1 – 2 Real Madrid (7/1)

Real Madrid’s superior form and experience in crucial matches give them the edge, though Dortmund’s home performance and fighting spirit could make it a close contest.

All stats are taken from SoccerSTATS.comand WhoScored.com, and the odds are from bet365 and are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.

All tips are provided as entertainment only; the author’s opinion should not be considered financial guidance. Always bet responsibly; if you need help with problem gambling, you can find organisations that offer support in this page’s footer.