Champions League Betting – Week 1 – Luke’s Champions League Tips

by , 15 September 2023

The Champions League starts next week, and we are ready to break down all the action for you right from the very start. In our article today, the most reliable UK sports betting expert, Luke Andrews, will have a detailed preview of some of the high-profile games, including AC Milan v Newcastle United, Manchester City v Red Star Belgrade, Bayern Munich v Manchester United, and Arsenal v PSV Eindhoven.

Champions League Betting – Week 1 – Luke's Champions League Tips

European Football is upon us; our midweek is about to be dominated by the best and most exciting football. As we commence on the journey to the final that will be played at Wembley Stadium, we highlight the English teams that will be aiming to reach the London final in August next year. Interest is always high in this competition, especially with Champions League betting fans.

AC Milan v Newcastle Newcastle 17/10 to win
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After a two-decade hiatus, Newcastle is back in the elite competition and will play last season’s semi-finalists AC Milan. The defending Champions, Manchester City, begin their title defence against Serbian outfit Red Star Belgrade, while their quiet neighbours, Manchester United, journey to Germany to face the six-time Champions League winners, Bayern Munich.

Arsenal, who has been lighting up the Premier League with electric performances, have a chance to shine their glow and showcase their talent and explosive football in the biggest platform of European football. The Gunners will hope to get off to a good start against PSV.

AC Milan v Newcastle United

Match Details: Tuesday 19th September, 17:45

Betting Odds: Home 6/4, Draw 27/10, Away 15/8

AC Milan has a rich history in the Champions League as the second-best team with seven trophies behind Real Madrid, who have twice the number of accolades (fourteen). They underwent a challenging rebuilding period but seem to be back at their best and reached the final four of the competition last season, losing out to Inter Milan by a 3 – 0 aggregate score. The new Champions League season gives a unique chance for the sleeping European giants, who have been having a great start to the new season in Italy. They have won all three games to collect the maximum points, tied with Inter Milan.

The Rosseneri made some exciting additions to their squad, bringing in Chelsea duo Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek alongside Tijjani Reijnders and Samuel Chukweeze. They look dangerous on the attack, adding to their impressive defence, which was their strength throughout last season’s campaign.

In his last four competitive games, Rafael Leao has had two three-goal involvements (one goal, two assists). The Portuguese maestro was their star man in their title-winning 2021-22 campaign, and the bookies have him on to score first with odds set at 7/1.

Newcastle United will be featuring in Europe, playing last in the competition back in the 2003-04 edition despite not reaching the group stage after being knocked out of the third qualifying round by Partizan Belgrade. Their other performances were in the 2002-23 season, where they reached the second group stage, and in the 1997-98 season, they reached the group stage.

A new dawn for the side under the wealthy Qatar owners has seen a colossal transformation and patient build-up to qualify for Europe in their first year. The Magpies had been playing some of the best football in the Premier League last season and have the artillery to disappoint the European Champions at San Siro. Their Achilles Heel will be an experience that begins right from the coach, Eddie Howe, who has no European exposure both as a player and a coach. The players have not played at this competitive level so it would be an excellent avenue for them, but they need to get a result from the onset.

Alexander Isak (6/1) and Callum Wilson (13/2) scored two goals in four appearances in the Premier League and are the likely goal threat to hit the back of the net first for Newcastle. The experience and history of AC Milan (6/4) in the competition makes them favourites, while the odds for the Geordies are set at 15/8 while a draw is priced at 27/10.

AC Milan v Newcastle United Key Stats:

AC Milan

Seasonal match statistics: Played 3, Won 3, Drawn 0, Lost 0

Points per game: 3.00

Goals scored per game: 2.67

Goals conceded per game: 0.67

Newcastle

Seasonal match statistics: Played 4, Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 3

Points per game: 0.75

Goals scored per game: 1.75

Goals conceded per game: 1.75

AC Milan v Newcastle United Betting Predictions

Match Outcome: AC Milan to Win – AC Milan is in better form than Newcastle and has vast experience in the Champions League; evenly playing at the San Siro gives them the home advantage.

Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 Goals – AC Milan averages 2.67 goals scored per game, while Newcastle haven’t been great defensively, with their matches having an average of 3.50 goals per match, which brews up for a high-scoring encounter.

Both Teams to Score: Yes – Both side’s percentages for both teams to score is high, with Newcastle (75%) and AC Milan (67%)

Manchester City v Red Star Belgrade

Match Details: Tuesday 19th September, 20:00

Betting Odds: Home 1/14, Draw 18/1, Away 45/1

The newest addition to the prestigious list of European winners, Manchester City finally had their hands on the Champions League. They lost the 2020-21 finals to Chelsea and reached the semi-finals in the 2021-22 season.

Pep Guardiola finally won the Champions League title for the first time since he left Barcelona after winning the treble, which is the ultimate feat in club football. The Spaniard hopes to achieve Real Madrid’s most remarkable achievement of winning consecutive Champions League trophies. They have had an impressive start to their Premier League defence with a perfect record, and by how things look, we also anticipate them to have a perfect group stage.

Erling Haaland is unsurprisingly the favourite to open the scoring with the odds for him to score first set at 15/8. He has an appetite for bullying the lesser teams; thus, he could hit a hat trick here. The bookies certainly think so as bet365 have the youngster a lowly 7/2 to score three.

Despite being branded the underdogs in this encounter, Red Star Belgrade has been impressive in their ranks and excelling in their league. They won their fifth straight Serbian league title and will have their heads high heading to Etihad, as they also have European championships to their name after winning the European Champion Clubs’ Cup winner in the 90/91 season.

They missed out on last season, losing out in the qualifiers play-offs, thus hoping to make a mark on their return and how bold of a statement it would be getting a result against the reigning Champions at their turf.

Both sides are fine, especially on the attack brewing up for a high-scoring encounter, especially with their incredible attack. The odds for Man City to begin the campaign on winning ways are 1/14, while that for the 1991 Champions to have an imprint in the competition is again set at 28/1, while a draw is set at 11/1.

Aleksandar Dragovic scored the opening goal in his side’s previous game that they won 2 – 1 against Novi Pazar. The captain has the odds 125/1 to open the scoring, primarily because of his presence in the box during set pieces. Players often score in bursts, so a small side bet might be worth a punt.

Manchester City v Red Star Belgrade Key Stats:

Manchester City Seasonal match statistics: Played 4, Won 4, Drawn 0, Lost 0

Points per game (Home): 3.00

Points per game (Total): 3.00

Goals scored per game: 2.75

Goals conceded per game: 0.50

Current streaks: Four consecutive wins

Red Star Belgrade Seasonal match statistics: Played 4, Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 3

Points per game (Away): 1.50

Points per game (Total): 2.50

Goals scored per game: 3.33

Goals conceded per game: 0.83

Manchester City v Red Star Belgrade Betting Prediction

Over/Under Goals – Prediction: Over 2.5 goals in Manchester City’s next match

Manchester City has an average of 2.75 goals scored per game this season. The team’s matches have seen over 2.5 goals 75% of the time. This suggests a high likelihood of a goal-heavy match.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Prediction: No

Manchester City has a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.5 goals per game. They’ve also kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches. This makes it less likely for both teams to score.

First Half Result – Prediction: Manchester City to lead at half-time

The team has been leading at half-time in 75% of their matches this season. They also have a habit of scoring early, with 45% of their goals coming in the first half.

Corners Over/Under – Prediction: Over 6.5 corners for Manchester City

The team has an average of 6 corners per game. Given their attacking style, they are likely to win several corners.

Win to Nil – Prediction: Manchester City to win to nil – They have won 50% of their matches without conceding a goal (won-to-nil). Given their strong defensive record, this is a plausible outcome.

Bayern Munich v Manchester United

Match Details: Wednesday 20th September, 20:00

Betting Odds: Home 4/7, Draw 19/5, Away 23/5

Bayern Munich have been one of the most dominant forces in the Champions League, boasting six trophies. The German Champions are expected to reach the knockout stage in every tournament edition, and every time they don’t get to the finals, it feels like a huge disappointment. On that note, you would understand why they are favourites to win this match and to top their group.

Harry Kane is the talk of the town, following up on the footsteps of Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham to step out of the comfort of the Premier League and venture into the Bundesliga. The England captain has his eyes set on a club trophy to spice up an impressive career and would be the most driven player on the pitch as they face a side he knows best in his time in the Premier League. Bayern seemed to struggle without a target man, and the maestro seemed to be the final piece of the puzzle for them to have a clear shot at European glory again. Kane is the fastest player to reach twenty UEFA Champions League goals, achieving this in just twenty-four appearances.

Manchester United started the season with high hopes after their third-place finish last season that saw them qualify for the Champions League. Erik ten Hag seemed to have his camp well moulded to launch a successful campaign. Still, four games ahead of their Premier League encounter against Brighton and Bayern Munich, the foundations of last season are crumbling.

The 2008 Champions League winners’ number of high-profile injuries and loss of another key player, Antony, leaves them short in manpower but still have the potential to rejuvenate their season with the talent they have. The Red Devil’s greatest strength is getting performances even when not playing well, defending in numbers and launching counterattacks.

Bruno Fernandes had a hattrick of assists in his last match and even scored a goal in their 9 – 0 win against Luxembourg. He will hope to inspire his side to European success.

The odds for Bayern Munich to tear down the Red Devils are set at 4/7 and 23/5 for an away win with a draw, which would be an incredible result for United set at 19/5. Bayern are too experienced, ruthless and relentless to let this slip; we predict a win for the German Champions.

Bayern Munich v Manchester United Key Points:

Home/Away Performance: Manchester United has a strong home record with two wins out of two matches but have lost both games this season, conceding more than one goal in both. Bayern Munich have scored two goals or more in all their games this campaign, winning all three games they have played.

The German side has been a regular figure in the knockout face of the Champions League and is favourites to win their group.

Man United have scored the equalising goal once in the last three times that the opponents have taken the lead, which equates to a 33% equalising rate, while Bayern have conceded first once and went ahead to recover, giving them a 100% equalising rate.

Bayern Munich v Manchester United Betting Predictions

Prediction: Bayern Munich to Win – Bayern Munich has had a strong start to their league campaign, winning all their matches so far. Their home advantage could also play a significant role. Manchester United, in contrast, has had a mixed start, with two wins and two losses in the league.

Side Bet: Over 2.5 Goals- Both teams have shown strong attacking capabilities, and their defensive records suggest that goals could be on the cards.

Anytime Goalscorer: Harry Kane will be hoping to make his English experience count, hoping to improve his tally of five goals and three assists against Manchester United. I’m tempted by Harry to score more than one, the odds on this were not available at the time of writing, but I’ll be backing him to score two and three when they are.

Arsenal v PSV

Match Details: Wednesday 20th September, 20:00

Betting Odds: Home 2/5, Draw 23/5, Away 15/2

The Gunners are deservedly back in the Champions League since the 2016-17 season, which was their seventeenth consecutive campaign. This year is the first season they are back in the prestigious tournament since Arsene Wenger left in a spell that included reaching the finals in the 2006 finals.

Arsenal seems to have transformed in their playing style, particularly when contrasting their previous competition lineup with their current squad. There’s a strong sense of optimism that they can surpass their historical performance in the tournament. Alongside a deep squad, they have a young manager who has excelled in the knockout stages, capturing the FA Cup in his inaugural season. It’s a bold prediction, but perhaps he could have an extraordinary run in his first European season, aiming to lead Arsenal to their inaugural Champions League title.

Martin Odegaard has been a reliable captain for Arsenal, both in leadership and in the goal- scoring department. The Norwegian and Arsenal captain has three goals in his last five games for club and country and is the likely player for the Gunners to open the scoring.

PSV come into this encounter tournament-ready after enjoying a successful play-off campaign, delivering impressive performances with their most recent 5 – 1 demolition of Rangers to qualify by an aggregate score of 7 – 3. They have been outstanding in the league, winning all their games this season, and will hope they can match their performances in the Champions League.

They had their hands in the 1987-88 European Cup and UEFA Cup 1977-78. The Netherlands club have two wins in the last four games against Arsenal (one draw, one defeat) and will hope they can start the campaign on a winning note.

Ismael Saibari scored twice in their 5 – 1 win against Rangers that saw them qualify for the Champions League. he opened the scoring in that match, and the odds for him opening the scoring against Arsenal.

The odds for a London win is 2/5, with the Holland side given a 15/2 chance to triumph again against Arsenal and a draw set at 23/5. The performances that Arsenal have been putting on at the Emirates mean they will likely dominate all aspects of the game and be victorious, building on their home advantage.

Arsenal v PSV Key Points:

Arsenal: Seasonal Stats: 4 matches played, three wins, one draw, 0 losses

Points per game: 2.33

Goals scored per game: 2.00

Goals conceded per game: 1.00

Current Streak: 3 consecutive wins, four matches without defeat

Home Stats: 3 matches played, three wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 points per game at home PSV:

Seasonal Stats: 3 matches played, three wins, 0 draws, 0 losses

Points per game: 3.00

Goals scored per game: 3.00

Goals conceded per game: 0.33

Current Streak: 3 consecutive wins, three matches without defeat

Away Stats: 2 matches played, two wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 points per game away

Arsenal v PSV Betting Prediction

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Yes – Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven have both been strong in attack but have also shown vulnerabilities in defence. This makes it likely that both teams will find the back of the net.

Arsenal to Win – Arsenal has been in good form lately, especially at home. They have a strong midfield and attacking lineup that could overpower PSV’s defence. First Half Draw – Both teams usually start cautiously in high-stake matches. A draw at halftime could be a likely scenario as both teams may take time to assess each other’s strategies.

Over 8.5 Corners – Both teams have wingers who like to cross, and both defences have shown they can be susceptible to set pieces. This could result in a higher number of corners than average. PSV Eindhoven to Score First – PSV has been quick off the mark in their recent games, often scoring within the first 30 minutes. Their fast-paced attack could catch Arsenal off guard early in the game.

Champions League Betting Tips – Matchday 1

Here is my five-fold accumulator for selected games on matchday 1 of the Champions League;

Game Predictions
Game Market Odds
AC Milan v Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals 8/11
Manchester City v Red Star Belgrade Both Teams to Score (BTTS) No 4/7
Bayern Munich v Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals 1/2
Bayern Munich v Manchester United Bayern to win 4/7
Arsenal v PSV Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Yes 3/4

The total potential payout will depend on which sports betting site you use, bet365 is offering just short of 10/1.

Champions League – The Other Games

There are other high-profile games in the midweek action. Here are these games and the latest odds for those fixtures.

PSG v Dortmund

Match Details: Tuesday 19th September, 17:45

Betting Odds: Home 7/11, Draw 7/2, Away 17/4

Despite winning the French league, PSG had a disappointing season; they had their eyes set on the Champions League title with the Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappe attack. They have made numerous changes in the side with new faces in attack that saw only Mbappe stay behind. Dortmund had a disappointing season, missing out on the German title on the final day to Bayern Munich, and will hope to bring some European glory back to ignite their animated fans.

Lazio v Atletico Madrid

Match Details: Tuesday 19th September, 17:45

Betting Odds: Home 19/10, Draw 27/11, Away 17/11

Lazio were runners up in the Serie A last season behind Napoli and ahead of the two Milan giants. They begin their much-deserved European adventure against the 2014 runners-up of the Champions League, Atletico Madrid.

Real Madrid v Union Berlin

Match Details: Wednesday 20th September, 17:45

Betting Odds: Home 8/13, Draw 10/3, Away 9/2

The ultimate team of the Champions League with fourteen trophies, Real Madrid, will look to begin strongly after their semi-final humiliation at the hands of eventual winners Manchester City. Union Berlin has been impressive, finishing fourth in the Bundesliga, and has started this campaign intensely as they will enjoy a fantastic Champions League night at the legendary Santiago Bernabeu stadium.

Real Sociedad v Inter

Match Details: Wednesday 20th September, 20:00

Betting Odds: Home 21/20, Draw 27/11, Away 16/11

The runners-up of the competition will travel to Spain to face Real Sociedad with their dreams of reaching consecutive finals and eventually having a hand on the trophy again.

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