Champions League Matchday 3 – Luke’s European Football Tips
The Champions League group stage reaches the midway point, and some clubs desperately need wins to stay in contention for qualifying. While Newcastle and Manchester City are flying in their groups, the British pair of Manchester United and Celtic are struggling, both without a point this campaign. Join Luke as he gives a betting insight into this week’s games.
Champions League Betting – Manchester United v Copenhagen
It almost seems like Manchester United faces a must-win clash every week. Still, they desperately need three points on the board after suffering defeats in their opening two fixtures in the Champions League (4-3 vs. Barcelona and 2-3 against Galatasaray). They face Copenhagen, who have reached the tournament the hard way through qualification, having already played eight games.
| Team Standings | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | PTS | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1 | B. Munich | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | Copenhagen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| 4 | Man Utd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -2 |
Manchester United v Copenhagen – Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United’s matches have consistently seen a high number of goals. Both “Goals For” and “Goals Against” stats suggest that their games are high-scoring, with 100% of their matches having over 1.5 goals and 56% having over 2.5 goals.
Manchester United v Copenhagen – Both Teams to Score
Manchester United has a 100% rate of “Both Teams Scored” in their recent matches. This stat suggests that their defence is not rock-solid, and they are likely to concede a goal while also being strong enough offensively to score.
Manchester United to Score in the Second Half
According to the “Goal Times”, 64% of Manchester United’s goals this season have been scored in the second half. This data suggests they are more likely to find the net in the latter part of the game.
Manchester United to Concede First but Win the Match
The “Leading & Trailing Stats” show that the opponent has scored first in 56% of Manchester United’s matches. However, they have an equalising rate of 33%, suggesting they have the capability to come back and win.
Manchester United v Copenhagen – Over 9.5 Corners
The “Team Corners” section shows that Manchester United averages 8.8 corners in home games, and they’ve hit the over 9.5 corners mark in 80% of those games. This stat suggests a high likelihood of a corner-heavy game when they are playing at home.
Champions League Betting – Sevilla v Arsenal
In the Premier League, Arsenal is flying, level at the top of the table with Manchester City. However, in the Champions League, they need a response after losing their last game 2-1 away at Lens, their first defeat in all competitions this season. The Gunners won their first game in Europe, hammering PSV 4-0 at home. Sevilla are European specialists but have drawn their two games so far.
| Team Standings | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | PTS | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1 | Lens | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | Eindhoven | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 |
Both Teams to Score in Sevilla FC vs Arsenal
Both Sevilla FC and Arsenal have shown a tendency to score and concede in their recent matches. Sevilla FC has a 100% “Both Teams Scored” rate in their last two games, while Arsenal has a 50% rate in their previous two fixtures. This data suggests that both teams are likely to find the back of the net.
Over 2.5 Goals in Sevilla FC vs Arsenal
Sevilla FC has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of their last two matches, while Arsenal has had over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last two matches. Both teams have attacking capabilities that could make this a high-scoring affair.
Sevilla FC vs Arsenal – Bet 3: Arsenal to Win or Draw
Arsenal has been in good form recently, with six wins and three draws in their last nine league matches. On the other hand, Sevilla FC has only two wins in their previous nine league matches. Arsenal’s current form suggests they are less likely to lose.
Sevilla FC vs Arsenal – Sevilla FC to Score First
Sevilla FC scored the opening goal in one in three (33%) league matches this season. Given their home advantage, they might be more likely to score first. Youssef En-Nesyri is Sevilla’s top scorer at the moment, he is 6/1 with bet365 to open the scoring.
Sevilla FC vs Arsenal – Total Corners Over 9.5
Sevilla FC averages 7.67 corners per game at home, while Arsenal averages 8.80 playing away from home. A bet on over 9.5 total corners could be a reasonable gamble.
Champions League Betting – Celtic v Atlético Madrid
Celtic might be flying high in the Scottish Premiership with eight wins in nine games (one draw), but in Europe, they are struggling. Beaten 2-0 by Feyenoord and 1-2 by Lazio, they are rooted to the bottom of Group E. All the other teams in the group have a win under their belts, meaning they face an uphill struggle to qualify.
| Team Standings | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | PTS | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1 | Atletico | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Lazio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | Celtic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 |
Celtic v Atlético Madrid – Both Teams to Score
Both Celtic and Atletico Madrid have shown solid offensive capabilities. Celtic has scored in four of their last five home matches, and Atletico Madrid has scored 13 goals in their last six away matches. Both teams have also conceded goals, making it likely that both will score.
Celtic v Atlético Madrid – Celtic to Score Over 1.5 Goals
Celtic has an average of 2.56 goals per game this season and scored three or more in each of their last two matches. Their home performance is strong, making it likely they’ll score multiple goals.
Celtic v Atlético Madrid – Atletico Madrid to Win
Atletico Madrid has won three of their last six away matches and has been undefeated in five of six away matches. Their away Points Per Game (PPG) is 2.00, indicating strong performance when not at home.
Celtic v Atlético Madrid – Total Goals Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid has an average of 2.56 goals scored per game this season. 50% of their matches had over 2.5 total goals scored. Given their offensive capabilities, it’s likely that their next match will feature at least three goals.
Celtic v Atlético Madrid – Celtic to Lead at Half-Time
Celtic has been leading at half-time in six of their nine matches this season. Their strong home performance and tendency to take the lead early in the game make this a good bet. However, as the Scottish league is not as strong as the LaLiga, I expect the Spanish team to win.
BetTarget is offering 20/1 on Celtic to be winning at half-time, but Atlético Madrid to win the game.
“It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Celtic win their domestic league at a canter, but the Champions League is a totally different level. I’d love to see them take something here, but you have to fancy the Spanish team at 19/20.” – Luke Andrews,
Betting Expert – UK Market.
Another market to consider is a team to receive a red card. Celtic has already been shown two in two, so discipline is a significant issue.
Champions League Betting – Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund
Newcastle are making up for lost time in Europe, drawing their first game against AC Milan 0-0 and playing the game of their lives against PSG, beating the French champions 4-1. Many thought Newcastle would struggle in the “group of death”, but they lead the pack after two games. However, they need to warn against complacency as the German team needs points as they sit at the bottom of the table.
| Team Standings | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | PTS | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1 | Newcastle | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | PSG | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| 3 | Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund – Over 2.5 Total Goals
67% of Newcastle Utd’s matches had over 2.5 goals scored in total. Although Dortmund has been less prolific in their recent matches, their league performance shows they average 2.13 goals per game. Combining both teams’ attacking prowess, it’s likely that the match will feature at least three goals.
Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund – Newcastle to Score in Both Halves
Newcastle scored in their last seven matches and two or more goals in each of their last four matches. They also have a 56% rate of scoring in the first half and a 78% rate in the second half. They’ll likely find the net in both halves, given their current form.
Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund – Dortmund to Win or Draw
Dortmund has an impressive league record this season, with six wins and two draws in eight matches. They haven’t lost a league game yet, and their points per game stand at a strong 2.50. A “Dortmund Win or Draw” bet seems reasonable, given their form. I’d love to see myself being proved wrong, but I feel Dortmund need the win more.
Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund – Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Newcastle have a 44% rate of both teams scoring in their matches. Despite not scoring in their recent matches, Dortmund has a strong league performance in terms of goals. A BTTS bet could be an intelligent choice because both teams have good attacking records.
Newcastle v Borussia Dortmund – Newcastle to Lead at Half-Time
Newcastle were leading at half-time in five of their nine matches this season. Given their first-half solid performances and the fact that Dortmund has been less consistent in their recent matches, a bet on Newcastle leading at half-time could offer good value.
Alexander Isak is in excellent form, and I’ll be backing him to score the first goal at 15/4.
Champions League Betting – Young Boys v Manchester City
Although Manchester City have been unusually inconsistent in the league, the defending champions have had no such issues in the Champions League, winning both games and top Group G. Their likely primary opponents in qualification, RB Leipzig, have won one and lost one, so even at this early stage, City have a three-point lead. Young Boys are yet to win, drawing and losing a game.
| Team Standings | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | PTS | MP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 3 | Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| 3 | Young Boys | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
Young Boys v Manchester City – Over 2.5 Goals
Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring games. BSC Young Boys have had 60% of their league games go over 2.5 goals, while Manchester City has had 100% of their recent matches go over 2.5 goals.
Young Boys v Manchester City – Manchester City to Win Both Halve
Manchester City has dominated their league, winning 78% of their matches. They have also led at half-time in many of their games. On the other hand, BSC Young Boys have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their league matches.
Young Boys v Manchester City – Both Teams to Score
Both teams have a high “Both Teams Scored” percentage. BSC Young Boys have a 100% rate in recent matches, and Manchester City also has a 100% rate. This stat suggests that both teams are likely to find the net. However, it’s worth remembering that the City defence is a different proposition to the Swiss players they are normally against.
BSC Young Boys to Score First but Lose the Match
BSC Young Boys have scored the opening goal in 80% of their league matches but have also had instances where they’ve lost the lead. Manchester City has the firepower to come back from a goal down. This is another risky bet, but in football, anything can happen. City fans will remember well that Young Boys beat Manchester United two years ago.
Young Boys v Manchester City – Total Corners Over 9.5
BSC Young Boys average 7.1 corners per game, and Manchester City also tends to win a lot of corners. The combined average suggests that the total corners could quickly go over 9.5.
