England v Malta Betting Odds
Short prices in England qualifiers are nothing new and it’s clear the bookies expect them to smash a few goals past hapless Malta on Friday night.
After all, the visitors have lost seven out of seven in the group, conceding 18 goals in the process. The reverse fixture was won 4-0 by Gareth Southgate’s men. The difference this time is that England have already qualified and there’s no doubt this international window subsequently has something of a friendly feel to it.However, while there’s every chance Southgate does use this game and Monday’s trip to North Macedonia to experiment a little ahead of next summer’s Euro 2024 finals in Germany, the England manager will also be very much aware of the need for more wins.
The seeding pots for next month’s draw will be determined by performance in the qualifying stage so England first need to seal top spot in the group – they only need one more point to do that – but then they’ll also need to own one of the five best records of the 10 group winners. That gives them motivation to get a couple of victories over the coming days.
Still, it’s already clear from the number of squad withdrawals that this window might not quite have the same level of focus as previous ones. While James Maddison’s injury is clearly a fairly serious one, others with slight knocks have not risked anything given the group situation. Therefore this might not be the total goal glut many will be expecting – it’s worth noting that the 4-0 scoreline is the worst Malta have suffered so far and a repeat of England’s 7-0 demolition of Macedonia at Wembley in June looks unlikely. If you’re looking for Euro 2024 betting advice, read on.
Best England v Malta Bets
Often it’s a good ploy when England are a short price to combine a bunch of likely factors such as ‘to win to nil’ and ‘to win both halves’ but such are the odds this time – England are as short as 1/150 for victory on some football betting sites – that even those still come up well short of even money. Instead, I think the best bet here is for the half with most goals to be the first.
This is the sort of game where Southgate will introduce a raft of substitutes after the break – expect a debut for Cole Palmer and Rico Lewis – and there’s every chance things become rather disjointed.That was the case in Malta in June when England led 3-0 at the break and, with the job basically done, only added a late penalty. And that’s far from the only example of England being strong in the first half before easing off.Four of their six qualifiers so far have featured more goals in the first half than the second, with all six seeing at least two goals before the half-time whistle. Malta’s stats are also good here with four of their seven qualifiers landing this bet.
With a price of 9/4, most goals in the first half looks a good play. Value can often be found in the player props markets but you’ve also got the problem of not really knowing who will start. However, Conor Gallagher looks a likely starter here. He was in Southgate’s XI for last month’s friendly with Australia and, given his strong form for Chelsea, looks set for another run-out during this window.
I’d envisage Southgate putting out a stronger team against Macedonia on Monday given it’s the harder of the two games, so this looks to be Gallagher’s chance. The midfielder has assisted in four of his last six club games and while he’ll nominally be considered one of two ‘holders’ here, in reality one of the two will likely be given licence to join the front four in attack. With this in mind, Gallagher looks a tempting price of 2/1 for an assist.
Players to be carded
Finally, the player-card market looks worth an interest given the appointment of Luis Godinho as referee. He’s a high-carding official in Portugal and is currently averaging over five per game across all competitions. Last season his card tally hit double figures in seven different matches. Malta’s team looks a bit easier to predict and their captain is defender Steve Borg. The defender has been carded in five of his last 10 internationals and for those who feel that dataset is too small, he’s long been their main man for collecting cards with 17 picked up in his last 47 games for Malta.
The 35-year-old will most likely be facing Ollie Watkins’ pace here – possibly even the red-hot Harry Kane. Add in the referee and 10/3 about a card for the visiting skipper looks worth a punt.
Best bets
- First half to have the most goals
- Conor Gallagher anytime assist
- Steve Borg to be carded at 10/3
