Kaiya Fraser the Best of Two Hitmen Racing This Saturday
Betfair sponsors Saturday’s Newbury card where the Game Spirit Chase and Denman Chase top the bill. These Grade-2 contests have proven exceptional stepping stones for Gold Cup and Champion Chase glory. Previous winners have included Coneygree, Long Run, Master Minded, Altior, Sprinter Sacre, and the great Denman himself.
Will we see another Gold Cup or Champion Chase winner in action this weekend? The Cheltenham Festival odds suggest not. Greaneteen may be 4/9 to land the Game Spirit Chase, but Paul Nicholls’ horse is 14/1 to take the two-mile feature at Prestbury Park.
Greaneteen has bundles in hand of four rivals in Saturday’s Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. ©GettyImages
Hitman tops the betting in the Denman Chase, but he is only entered in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and is a dismissive 25/1 to land that contest. Pulled up in Boxing Day’s King George – later found to have burst a blood vessel – at 7/4, Hitman appears too short in the betting for Saturday’s near three-mile assignment.
The seven-year-old has only won once in eight chase starts outside of novice company. That stat has swayed this column away from Hitman and directed us toward the betting exchanges where he can and should be laid.
Will Warwick’s Card Be a Kingmaker?
But two genuine Cheltenham challengers are on display at Warwick during the afternoon. Jonbon – seven from eight over hurdles and fences since being sold for £570,000 – should readily sweep aside three rivals in the Kingmakers Novices’ Chase due off at 2.40 pm.
Only 5/4 to claim the Arkle Chase in March, the Nicky Henderson-trained full-brother to Douvan is 2/9 to win this ITV televised contest. Unlike Hitman, it is difficult to pick holes in Jonbon’s form. But it is also foolhardy to back any novice chaser at such odds.
Love Envoi, a mare with a similar British record (unbeaten in seven domestic starts) is another ‘shortie’ racing at Warwick ahead of a potential Cheltenham assignment. Winner of the Dawn Run Mares Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival, a polished success in the 2.05 pm will see Harry Fry’s star book her place in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle.
Fraser’s Figures Make Dembe a Bet
From a punting perspective, most of the day’s jump races are handicaps and tough to decipher. But, on the flat at Lingfield, an opportunity presents itself at 1.23 pm. The fancy in this 12-furlong apprentice contest is Dembe representing the small Epsom stables of Brett Johnson.
The five-year-old has won four times on all-weather surfaces, and all those victories came in a golden two-month period starting around this time last year. Dembe has never raced beyond 10 furlongs but has course-winning form over this trip and has won at Lingfield twice.
What makes him so attractive in a race of this type is five-pound claiming rider Kaiya Fraser. The Hackney-born jockey has an exceptional record. Since taking out a rider’s license, he has won one race in five (12 from 60), and over fifty percent of his mounts were placed.
Fraser has had just one ride in 2023 – it won for the Johnson stable here at Lingfield at odds of 5/1. The victory took the rider’s profit column to +£72.25 for a £1 stake on all his rides to date. With the best horse racing betting sites quoting Dembe on 3/1, hopefully that figure will read +£75.25 and not +£71.25 by 1.25 pm on Saturday.
