Kamala Harris Tops Trump to Become US Election Favourite
An assassination attempt. An ailing rival that made gaffs with the regularity of a stand-up comedian delivering jokes. A guilty verdict on 34 criminal felony counts of falsifying business records – that led to an increase in his popularity. For a while there, everything seemed so good for Donald Trump.
Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz are now favourites to win November’s election for the Democratic Party. ©Getty
Punters were falling over themselves to back the former President to recapture his old job. In mid-July, the 78-year-old was top-priced 1/3 to win November’s election. The odds offered by novelty betting sites equated to an implied probability of 75 per cent, and they held firm when JD Vance was announced as Trump’s running mate.
And then it happened. At 7.31 pm on July 21, Biden took to Twitter to announce that he was not running for re-election and offered his “full support and endorsement” of Kamala Harris as the nominee of the Democratic Party. Betting markets and the small matter of the American electorate were sent into a state of disarray.
Biden Bets Lost as Markets Meltdown
Punters that had backed Biden to win the 2024 election had lost their money. Likewise, anyone who had supported Kamala Harris into 3/10 to be Biden’s running mate had their fingers burned. Those that had backed Trump into 1/3 for election success also had a rude awakening.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
As rumours that Biden was considering withdrawing from the race – and despite his replacement’s identity not being known – Trump’s odds slowly began to lengthen. He was 4/9 on the eve of Biden’s announcement and 8/15 the day following it. Day by day, tiny fractions were shaved off his price.
By the time it was clear that Harris was going to be the Democratic Presidential candidate – July 26 was a big day for her aspirations as Barack and Michelle Obama pledged their support – Trump had drifted out to 8/13. For the benefit of Republicans who do not look at the betting markets, August 8 was the day Harris overtook their candidate in the betting.
How Popular Will Harris Get?
A series of favourable polls have seen the money continue to pour in for Harris. Novelty betting sites quote California’s former attorney general and senator on 4/5 odds to win the November 5th election. Her party is now 1/5 to win the popular vote, and the Democrats are 1/100 to win the State of California.
It should be noted that Democratic nominees Hillary Clinton (2016) and Al Gore (2000) lost the US election despite winning the popular vote. In 2020, the Democrats, led by Biden, officially won 81,283,098 or 51.3 per cent of the total votes. Of course, if you listen to and believe Trump, those figures are wrong!
Will Harris’ price continue to shrink in the weeks and months ahead of the November 5th election? If there is one thing recent weeks have told us, it is that nothing is certain in US politics. Harris has already delivered a shocker when announcing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
The Fight Over Swing States
Favourite backers were scorched when Josh Shapiro was not announced as the Democratic Vice President nominee. The Pennsylvania Governor was quoted on 4/11 odds days before Harris decided on a running mate. The second favourite was Andy Beshear of Kentucky, but he did not receive the nod either.
Instead, Tim Walz of Minnesota landed the prize and rewarded some backers with an 8/1 winner. Shapiro was the punter’s pick as Pennsylvania is seen as a must-win State for both parties, and the 51-year-old has a high approval rating.
.@Tim_Walz and I kicked off our first week on the campaign trail as running mates—and, in just five days, we visited Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Over the next 86 days, we hope to see you all out on the trail. pic.twitter.com/jeWqgzgJJF
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) August 11, 2024
Ultimately, the result will come to the so-called ‘swing’ or ‘battleground states’. The states that voted for current Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and former Republican President Donald Trump in 2016 and are often highlighted as swing states include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In 2020, seven states were won by a margin of three percentage points or less. These states included the five above states plus North Carolina and Nevada. Consequently, political parties will spend a disproportionate amount of time and campaign resources courting voters in these states in the coming months.
Political betting sites such as William Hill believe the Democrats will fare best in the bulk of battleground stakes. They make the party 2/7 to take Nevada, 2/9 to claim Arizona, 2/7 to succeed in Michigan, 1/7 to win Pennsylvania and 1/6 to retain Wisconsin – which it claimed by just 0.63 per cent in 2020.
Ladbrokes favour the Republicans in just two swing states, quoting Trump’s party on 1/2 odds to win North Carolina. Georgia, which voted Republican in six consecutive presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 – a streak broken when the state went for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020 – is currently 1/2 to become red once again.
