Premier League Betting – Week 5 – Luke’s Premier League Tips

by , 14 September 2023

The Premier League is back in action this weekend after the international break. In this article, our UK sports betting expert, Luke Andrews, will explore the odds for some of the most anticipated matchups, including Wolverhampton v Liverpool, Manchester United v Brighton, Aston Villa v Crystal Palace, Everton v Arsenal, and West Ham v Manchester City.

Premier League Week 5: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

Four matches into the season, the league is already filled with exciting action and impressive football performances. The competition for the title is shaping up to be a genuine race, with the teams we’re focusing on today all demonstrating the potential to challenge for the Premier League crown.

Liverpool v Wolves Mo Salah 4/11 First Goal
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Liverpool is rebounding from their underwhelming performance last season; Arsenal aims to mount a title run similar to last season’s effort. Manchester United has been erratic and is grappling with internal conflicts. The current champions, Manchester City, remain the only team with a flawless record and appear to be the clear favourites, even this early, to keep their title.

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 12:30

Betting Odds: Home 13/2, Draw 4/1, Away 4/11

Wolves need redemption to keep their Premier League hopes alive and give their fans joy by delivering good performances. A great place to start will be against Liverpool, which could give them some motivation after the international break.

They have won just twice in the last thirty-seven games (eight draws, twenty-seven defeats). Their only win this campaign was a 1 – 0 triumph against struggling Everton, keeping a clean sheet in the match.

Gary O’Neil has a challenging task at the Molineux, with the relegation struggle a likely highlight of their season, which is a massive downgrade for a side that has been a custom mid-table entity.

They face Liverpool, who they have lost the highest number of games (nine) since their return to the Premier League in 2018.

Hwang Hee-Chan has scored half of his side’s goals despite occasionally coming off the bench and should start as their best player in goal involvement. He is the player to watch with the odds for him to score first set at 16/1.

Jurgen Klopp has reinvented Liverpool, starting this campaign brightly and occupying third place, only dropping points once in the opening match, where they drew against Chelsea. The Reds lost 3 – 0 in the Black County last season and would have the golden chance to revenge the humiliation in a season that looks bright and ambitious so far for the Reds.

Liverpool extended their longest unbeaten streak to fifteen games (ten wins, five draws), which is their fifth such run under their animated German manager. The biggest challenge the Reds have will be to adapt to playing at the time of the day as they failed to win in all their six (three draws, three defeats) early Saturday kick-offs last season; five of them were on the road (two draws, three defeats).

Mohammed Salah has ten Premier League goal contributions, scoring five and providing seven assists. He could become the fourth-ever player if he makes it to eleven. The Egyptian king’s odds to be the first goal scorer are set at 4/1.

The form of Liverpool makes them the outright favourites to win (4/11) to beat the struggling Wolves, whose odds have been set at 13/2. In the improbable outcome of a draw, the odds are set at 4/1.

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool Key Stats:

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Seasonal match statistics: Played 4, Won 1, Drawn 0, Lost 3

Points per game: 0.75

Goals scored per game: 1.00

Goals conceded per game: 2.00

Liverpool

Seasonal match statistics: Played 4, Won 3, Drawn 1, Lost 0

Points per game: 2.50

Goals scored per game: 2.25

Goals conceded per game: 0.75

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool Betting Predictions

Match Outcome: Liverpool to Win – Liverpool has been in excellent form, winning 3 out of their 4 matches, while Wolverhampton has struggled, winning only 1 out of 4. Liverpool also has a much higher points-per-game average and a better goal difference.

Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 Goals – Both teams have been involved in matches with many goals. Liverpool averages 2.25 goals per game, and Wolverhampton concedes an average of 2 goals per game. This suggests a likelihood of a high-scoring match.

Both Teams to Score: Yes – Wolverhampton has managed to score in 3 out of their 4 matches, and Liverpool has conceded in 2 out of their 4 matches. Given both teams’ attacking capabilities, it’s likely that both will find the back of the net.

First Half Result: Draw – Wolverhampton has been drawing at half-time in 3 out of their 4 away matches, and Liverpool has been involved in a draw at half-time in one of their matches. Wolverhampton may focus on defence in the first half to keep Liverpool at bay.

Corner Bets: Over 9.5 Corners – Both teams have been involved in matches with many corners. Wolverhampton averages 3.5 corners per game, and Liverpool is likely to push for more corners, given their attacking style.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 15:00

Betting Odds: Home 17/20, Draw 13/5, Away 3/1

Aston Villa has European obligations in the UEFA Europa Conference League; they start their assignment against Legia Warsaw.

They have had an inconsistent start to the Premier League, winning two and losing two in their recent match, losing 3 – 0 at Anfield against Liverpool. They hope to give a better performance that saw them win two consecutive games, Everton and Burnley scoring seven goals.

Villa Park has been their fortress, having not lost a match against Crystal Palace since December 2013 (winning four, drawing two). In the Premier League, they have not lost in eight consecutive games, conceding just twice in a run that began with a 1 – 0 win against the Eagles in March. Villa have been fast starters, scoring the opening goal in their last five victories within the first twenty-five minutes.

Defender Matty Cash has had impressive explorations in attack, scoring three goals in their previous three competitive games, with two of his goals coming in the first twenty minutes. The Polish international has had an eye for the goal, and his odds of scoring first are 18/1. Crystal Palace is having one of their best-ever starts to a Premier League season. They have yet to concede before the fifteenth minute and have been playing impressive attacking football, but have yet to score a first-half goal this campaign.

The Eagles leave it late but wouldn’t complain over their record of two wins, one draw and one defeat, adapting well to the departure of Wilfred Zaha.

Roy Hodgson has been their inspiration, delivering results even when the performances haven’t been the best. A better performance would be excellent for their fans, especially those who travel to away games, as they have recorded just one win in the last five games (two draws, two defeats).

The win was against newly promoted side Sheffield United, and they have not scored more than once against Villa on the road since 1962.

Odsonne Edouard has been the Eagle’s best attacker with three goals in four Premier League games, including scoring the opening goals twice. Edouard has the best odds of being the first scorer for Crystal Palace, with the price at bet365 set at 8/1.

Both sides are fine, especially on the attack brewing up for a high-scoring encounter between two equals. The match can quickly go either way, with the bookmarkers favouring a home win (17/20), the travelling side set at 3/1 and a draw set at 13/5.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Key Stats:

Aston Villa Points per game (Home): 3.00

Points per game (Total): 1.50

Goals scored per game: 2.00

Goals conceded per game: 2.25

Current streaks: Consecutive defeats: 1, No win: 1

Crystal Palace Points per game (Away): 2.00

Points per game (Total): 1.75

Goals scored per game: 1.25

Goals conceded per game: 1.00

Current streaks: Consecutive wins: 1, No defeat: 2

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Betting Prediction

Bet on Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams have recently been involved in high-scoring games. Aston Villa averages 2.00 goals scored per game and 2.25 goals conceded, while Crystal Palace averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded. The stats suggest that this could be a high-scoring affair.

Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Given that both teams have shown the ability to find the back of the net and have also conceded goals, a BTTS bet could be a good option.

Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace has a better points-per-game average and is currently on a no-defeat streak. They also perform well away from home, making them a safer bet in a Draw No Bet market.

Manchester United v Brighton

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 15:00

Betting Odds: Home 23/20, Draw 14/5, Away 2/1

It has been a turbulent time for Manchester United, a 3 – 1 defeat to their rivals Arsenal before the break, a fallout between the manager and Jadon Sancho, and the Antony allegations are stains that affect the team’s concentration.

Ten Hag has to inspire their side against Brighton, and a trip to Germany to face Bayern Munich means they have to get their house in order and quickly. The Red Devils are already inconsistent in the four games (winning two, losing two), with their wins coming at home. Old Trafford has been a haven where they are unbeaten since September 2022 (winning twenty-seven, four draws).

Marcus Rashford scored the opening goal against Arsenal, has been on form for Man United and just needs the players around him to get him to his level and perform better in their games. Bruno Fernandes had five goal contributions for Portugal (two goals, three assists), and he hopes he brings the form to his club. Rashford odds for being the first scorer is 6/1, while the odds for his captain are slightly longer at 9/1.

Brighton has become a relentless force that threatens all their opponents, especially when they face the top teams. They have been fierce as they beat Newcastle United 3 – 1 before the break in a fantastic display of good attacking football.

They have won three and lost one of the four games this campaign. They will be excited when the week starts as they have the prospect of European football in the Europa League. There has never been a draw between the two sides in the previous twelve meetings, where Brighton won five and United won seven.

Pascal Grob has scored six goals against Manchester United, his best tally against any other team. The bookies have the odds at 16/1 to open the scoring against his favourite opponent. The odds for a Manchester United win are set at 23/20, while the odds for a victory for the visitors are set at 2 /1, with a draw set at 14/5.

Manchester United v Brighton Key Points:

Home/Away Performance: Manchester United has a strong home record with 2 wins out of 2 matches, while Brighton has won their only away game.

Points Per Game: Manchester United has a PPG of 3.00 at home, while Brighton has a PPG of 3.00 away.

Goals Scored/Conceded: Manchester United has scored 4 and conceded 2 at home. Brighton has scored 4 and conceded 1 in their only away game.

Current Form: Manchester United has 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 4 games. Brighton has 3 wins and 1 loss.

Manchester United v Brighton Betting Predictions

Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Given that both teams have a strong attacking record this season, a BTTS bet seems likely. Both teams have a scoring rate of over 75% and a conceding rate of over 75%.

Over 2.5 Goals: Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede, making an Over 2.5 Goals bet plausible. Manchester United’s home games have 50% going over 2.5 goals, and Brighton’s only away game had over 2.5 goals.

Draw No Bet – Manchester United: Given Manchester United’s strong home form, a Draw No Bet on them could be a safer option. They have a 100%-win rate at home this season.

First Half Draw: Both teams have shown that they can be level at half-time, making a first-half draw a possible outcome. Manchester United has drawn at half-time in 75% of their games, and Brighton has also shown a tendency to be level at half-time.

Anytime Goalscorer: Given the attacking prowess of both teams, betting on key players like Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) or Neal Maupay (Brighton) to score anytime could be a good option. Both teams have key players who are in good form and are likely to score.

West Ham United v Manchester City

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 15:00

Betting Odds: Home 11/2, Draw 18/5, Away 4/9

West Ham is buzzing with success, enjoying a stellar start to the campaign, learning from the lessons of last season that saw them embroiled in the relegation battle.

The London side is the season’s surprise package, running up an unbeaten campaign so far, winning three and drawing one. First, they face their first arduous task against the defending Champions, Manchester City, who have won all their games. The Hammers haven’t found joy against previous winners, with their best result in the last ten games a draw (losing nine). David Moyes will also have to address their defensive frailties if they are to keep up their impressive form.

Kurt Zouma scored the thirteenth goal of his career against Luton as an aerial threat, with all but one of the goals being headers. An unlikely scorer with most of his input will be to keep Haaland quiet. But at odds set at 50/1 for him to score first, with deliveries by James Ward-Prowse, it is always possible. I’ll be having a small side bet on this.

“I like outsider bets, and my choice for this week is Kurt Zouma to score first in the game against City. He doesn’t score that often, but I see the Hammers being a threat from dead-ball situations in this game. The anytime goal scorer market is also worth considering as a safer bet.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

For a side that has generationally been slow starters to the Premier League and is picking up pace as the season progresses. Manchester City is having an exceptionally excellent campaign start and looking in good shape to defend their title. They enjoyed an impressive form, banking five goals past Fulham in their 5 – 1 win. The return of the Champions League will be an exciting feature for the European Champions, but we expect them to field a strong side and dominate both competitions. They have found joy playing against the Hammers as they unbeaten in the last eight visits to the capital, winning five and drawing three.

Erling Haaland, who is a real contender for the Ballon d’Or, scored a hat trick in the previous game to take his tally to six goals is one to watch out for. The Norwegian has a great eye for goal, and as the Man City penalty taker, he is most likely to open the scoring with his odds set at 13/5.

The Hammers have the odds of 11/2 to disappoint the Champions, whose odds are set at 4/9 with a draw, which would feel like a defeat for Man City set at 18/5.

West Ham United v Manchester City Key Points:

West Ham United: Seasonal Stats: 4 matches played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses

Points per game: 2.50

Goals scored per game: 2.25

Goals conceded per game: 1.00

Current Streak: 3 consecutive wins, 4 matches without defeat

Home Stats: 1 match played, 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 points per game at home

Manchester City: Seasonal Stats: 4 matches played, 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses

Points per game: 3.00

Goals scored per game: 2.75

Goals conceded per game: 0.50

Current Streak: 4 consecutive wins, 4 matches without defeat

Away Stats: 2 matches played, 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 points per game away

West Ham United v Manchester City Betting Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals – Both teams have a high average of goals scored per game (West Ham: 2.25, Man City: 2.75). The likelihood of the match ending with over 2.5 goals is high.

Both Teams to Score – West Ham has scored in all their matches this season, and so has Manchester City. Both teams have also conceded at least once in their games, making it likely that both teams will score.

Draw or Manchester City to Win (Double Chance) – Given Manchester City’s strong form and West Ham’s impressive start, a draw or a win for Manchester City seems likely.

Corners Over 9.5 – Both teams have shown to win many corners in their matches. West Ham averages around 4.25 corners per game, and Manchester City is similar. The total number of corners could easily go over 9.5.

First Half Draw – West Ham has had 50% of their matches at half-time as draws. Manchester City has also had games that were level at half-time. A first-half draw could be a value bet.

Manchester City to Score in Both Halves – Given their attacking prowess and the fact that they have scored in both halves in most of their games, it’s likely they could score in both halves against West Ham.

Everton v Arsenal

Match Details: Sunday 17th September, 16:30

Betting Odds: Home 5/1, Draw 7/2, Away 1/2

Everton have picked up from where they left last season in the relegation struggle, they narrowly escaped on the last day of the season.

They have one point in four games, sitting third from the bottom, with their only positive performance a 2 – 2 draw against Sheffield before the break. They opened the scoring but couldn’t keep the lead past half-time and equalised in the second half to earn their first point.

Sean Dyche won his first match as the Goodison manager against Arsenal, working on exploiting the London side’s weakness by playing an extremely physical game and taking them off their stride. I anticipate they will try manipulating the same weakness again, especially playing at home and get the stadium behind them as they long for their first win. It feels like a challenging task in their form, but the technicality in their approach, meaning they know exactly what to do, especially in this encounter, makes them dangerous.

Arnaut Danjuma has scored in the last two games for Everton, scoring the winning goal against Doncaster in the EFL Cup and the equalising goal against the Blades to earn his side a point. The former Spurs player will be eager to score against his former rivals, with the odds set at 14/1 to open the scoring.

Arsenal have been flying high in the Premier League as the most improved and realistic threat to challenge Manchester City to the title. They are eager to relieve their title campaign of last season after prematurely stepping out of the pilot seat the previous season; they are pre-determined to go all the way this season.

They have delivered scintillating performances, relentlessly attacking and causing havoc in opposition defences. The Gunners’ latest victim was their seasonal rival Manchester United, who they thrashed 3 – 1 to head to the international break on a high note.

Mikel Arteta seems to have found the right players to execute his masterpiece after a successful transfer window that saw them do their business precisely and fast, unlike over the previous years, where they had prolonged negotiations that mostly ended unsuccessfully. They head to Goodison Park, a stadium where they failed to win one of the crucial three games that cost them the Premier League last season.

Bakayo Saka won his second consecutive England Player of the Year award and has delivered consistently impressive performances with three goal involvements (two goals, one assist). A real threat with or without the ball, the Englishman has the odds of 13/2 to open the scoring against Everton.

The odds for Everton to repeat the 1 – 0 win against Arsenal and take all three points are set at 5/1, but it feels pretty unlikely with the form of Arsenal, who have their odds set at (1/2). A draw which feels like a stretch, is set at 7/2.

Everton v Arsenal Key Stats:

Everton: 4 matches played, 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses

Points per game: 0.25

Goals scored per game: 0.5

Goals conceded per game: 2.0

Current streaks: No win in 4 matches, 2 consecutive home defeats

Arsenal: 4 matches played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses

Points per game: 2.5

Goals scored per game: 2.0

Goals conceded per game: 1.0

Current streaks: 1 consecutive win, no defeat in 4 matches

Everton v Arsenal Betting Predictions

Match Outcome: Arsenal to Win – Arsenal has been in better form, with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 4 matches. On the other hand, Everton has struggled, with no wins in their last 4 matches. Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 Goals – Arsenal has been scoring an average of 2 goals per game, and Everton has conceded 2 goals per game. This suggests a high likelihood of a match with more than 2.5 goals.

Both Teams to Score: No – Everton has failed to score in 3 out of their 4 matches, while Arsenal has only conceded in 3 out of 4 matches. The likelihood of both teams scoring seems low based on current form.

First-Half Result: Draw or Arsenal to Lead – Arsenal has been strong in the first half, while Everton has often been level or trailing. A draw or an Arsenal lead at half-time seems likely. Corner Bets: Over 7.5 Corners – Everton averages around 7.25 corners per game, and Arsenal is likely to contribute to the corner count as well. An over 7.5-corner bet seems reasonable.

Premier League Betting Tips – Week 5

Out of my predictions, here are the five I recommend you combine into an accumulator bet.

Game Betting Market Odds
West Ham United v Manchester City Over 2.5 goals 4/7 with 888sport
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool Both Teams to Score 8/13
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Over 2.5 goals 4/5
Manchester United v Brighton Both Teams to Score 2/5
Everton v Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals 4/6

For this week, I’ve decided to play it safe in the hope of building some funds for a busy few weeks of Premier League betting. I’m expecting a weekend with plenty of goals. Therefore, this 9.66/1 acca reflects that.

The Rest of the Premier League Games

There are five other games taking place over the long weekend. Here are these games and the latest odds for those fixtures.

Tottenham Vs Sheffield United

Spurs welcome newly promoted side Sheffield as they hope to continue their impressive start to the season. The Blades have collected their first points against Everton in the previous match.

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 12:30

Betting Odds: Home 3/10, Draw 26/5, Away 21/2

Fulham Vs Luton

Fulham have four points and will hope they can keep up their impressive tally starting from the beginning. Luton are yet to collect a point, and alongside Burnley, two of the teams yet to record a point will fancy their chances against the Cottagers.

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 15:00

Betting Odds: Home 13/19, Draw 3/1, Away 23/5

Newcastle Vs Brentford

Match Details: Saturday 16th September, 17:30

Betting Odds: Home 11/20, Draw 7/2, Away 1/2

The Magpies will hope to bounce back from their recent defeat, while Brentford, who are unbeaten this season (three draws, one win), have a real chance to win here.

Bournemouth Vs Chelsea

Match Details: Sunday 17th September, 14:00

Betting Odds: Home 15/4, Draw 16/5, Away 3/4

Chelsea have been struggling for form and will try their luck against the Cherries, hoping to return to winning ways after the disappointing defeat against Nottingham Forest. Bournemouth have two draws in their ranks and will be hoping for their first win of the season.

Nottingham Forest Vs Burnley

Match Details: Monday 18th September, 19:45

Betting Odds: Home 6/5, Draw 13/5, Away 49/20

Nottingham beat Chelsea in the previous game and have the momentum as they welcome Burnley, who are yet to gain a point.

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