Premier League Betting – Week 6 – Luke’s Premier League Tips
The Premier League is set to deliver another thrilling weekend of football. In this article, our UK sports betting expert, Luke Andrews, delves into the Premier League betting odds for some of the weekend’s most eagerly awaited clashes, including Manchester City v Nottingham Forest, Arsenal v Tottenham, Chelsea v Aston Villa, Liverpool v West Ham Utd, and Burnley v Manchester Utd.
Five matches into the season, the league continues to captivate fans with exhilarating games and standout football displays. The battle for the coveted Premier League title is intensifying, with the teams highlighted today all showcasing their ambition to clinch the top spot.
Having showcased their dominance, Manchester City is keen to maintain their momentum; Arsenal and Tottenham face off in what promises to be a fierce North London derby. Chelsea is looking to stamp their authority against Aston Villa despite their recent struggles. Liverpool, always a force to reckon with, could face a challenging game against in-form West Ham Utd. Meanwhile, Manchester Utd, with problems both on and off the field, are gearing up for a tough encounter against Burnley. Join me as I delve into the statistics which could give you an advantage when Premier League betting.
Manchester City v Nottingham Forest
Match Details: Sat, 23-Sep-23
Kick-off: 15:00
Betting Odds: Home: 1/7 Draw: 15/2 Away: 14/1
Manchester City v Nottingham Forest Betting Predictions
Manchester City has been in top form, securing seven consecutive wins in all competitions since the season’s start. They lead the Premier League table with a perfect record, taking all 15 points and conceding the fewest goals (three). Their opponents, Nottingham Forest, managed a draw against Burnley in their last match and are currently in the eighth position with seven points from five matches.
Manchester City to Win – Manchester City has been in excellent form, winning all their last five matches. They have also scored an average of 3 goals per game at home and have a 100% win rate at home. On the other hand, Nottingham Forest has won only one of their three away games. Given this form and the home advantage, Manchester City will likely secure a win.
Over 2.5 Total Goals – Manchester City averages 3.4 total goals (GF+GA) in their matches, while Nottingham Forest averages three total goals in their away matches. Given the offensive strength of Manchester City and the defensive vulnerabilities of Nottingham Forest, it’s likely that this match will see more than 2.5 goals.
Manchester City to Score in Both Halves – Manchester City has a 50% rate of scoring in both halves when playing at home. Given their dominant form and the fact that they’ve scored an average of 3 goals per home game, it’s plausible they’ll find the net in both halves against Nottingham Forest.
| Manchester City v Nottingham Forest Scoring Rates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Stat | Nottm Forest |
| 100% | Scoring rate | 100% |
| 60% | Scoring Rate 1st-Half | 40% |
| 80% | Scoring Rate 2nd-Half | 80% |
| 40% | Scored in both halves | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 60% | Conceding rate | 80% |
| 40% | Conceding Rate 1st-Half | 60% |
| 20% | Conceding Rate 2nd-Half | 40% |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – While Manchester City is the favourite and has a solid offensive record, Nottingham Forest has also managed to score in 100% of their away games. This suggests that even if Manchester City dominates, Nottingham Forest might find an opportunity to score.
Over 9.5 Total Corners – Manchester City averages seven corners per game, while Nottingham Forest averages two corners in their away games. Combining the attacking nature of Manchester City with the defensive play of Nottingham Forest, it’s likely that there will be several corner opportunities in the match. The combined average corners for both teams is 9, so betting on over 9.5 corners seems reasonable.
Arsenal v Tottenham
Match Details: Sun, 24-Sep-23
Kick-off: 14:00
Betting Odds: Home: 7/10 Draw: 16/5 Away: 10/3
Arsenal v Tottenham Betting Predictions
Arsenal has been in good form, maintaining an unbeaten start to the season and recently defeating PSV 4-0. They have won six of their seven matches this season. On the other hand, Tottenham secured a late 2-1 win against Sheffield United in their last match. Historically, Spurs haven’t won a Premier League North London Derby at the Emirates since 2010.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Arsenal and Tottenham have consistently scored in their recent matches. Arsenal has a 100% scoring rate at home, and Tottenham has a 100% scoring rate away. Additionally, both teams have a conceding rate of 60% or more, indicating that both teams are likely to score in this match.
Over 2.5 Total Goals – The average total goals for Arsenal’s home matches is 3.67, and for Tottenham’s away matches, it’s 4.33. Given their recent form and the historical data, it’s likely that the match will see more than 2.5 goals.
Arsenal to Score in the First Half – Arsenal has a 67% scoring rate in the first half of their home matches. Given their recent form, especially their 3:1 victory against Manchester United, it’s plausible that Arsenal will find the net in the first half.
Total Corners Over 9.5 – Arsenal averages 9.33 corners in their home matches, and Tottenham averages 5.33 corners in their away games. Combining the corner stats for both teams, it’s likely that the match will see more than 9.5 corners.
| Arsenal v Tottenham Corner Stats | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Stat | Tottenham |
| 9.40 | AVG Corners For | 6.40 |
| 2.20 | AVG Corners Against | 4.80 |
| 11.60 | Total Corners per match | 11.20 |
| 100% | Over 7.5 Total Corners | 100% |
| 100% | Over 8.5 Total Corners | 80% |
| 80% | Over 9.5 Total Corners | 60% |
| 80% | Over 10.5 Total Corners | 60% |
| 40% | Over 11.5 Total Corners | 20% |
| 20% | Over 12.5 Total Corners | 20% |
| 20% | Over 13.5 Total Corners | 20% |
Draw or Arsenal to Win – Arsenal has been in good form at home, with two wins and one draw in their last three home matches. While strong away, Tottenham has shown vulnerabilities, especially in losing to Fulham in the League Cup (Carabao). Given Arsenal’s home advantage and recent form, it’s likely that the match will either end in a draw or an Arsenal win.
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Match Details: Sun, 24-Sep-23
Kick-off: 14:00
Betting Odds: Home: 5/6 Draw: 11/4 Away: 3/1
Chelsea v Aston Villa Betting Predictions
Chelsea have been inconsistent so far: two wins, two draws and two losses. Villa is in much better form, with five wins out of six in all competitions (including a 5-0 win over Hibs in the Europa Conference League). Villa’s only defeat was a heavy 3-0 loss at Anfield against Liverpool.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – The stats show that both Chelsea and Aston Villa have a high scoring rate in their recent matches. Chelsea has a 60% scoring rate at home, while Aston Villa has a 67% scoring rate away. Additionally, both teams have conceded goals in their recent matches, making it likely that both teams could score.
| Chelsea v Aston Villa – Goals scored / Goals conceded | ||
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | Stat | Aston Villa |
| 60% | GF over 0.5 | 80% |
| 20% | GF over 1.5 | 60% |
| 20% | GF over 2.5 | 60% |
| 0% | GF over 3.5 | 20% |
| 0% | GF over 4.5 | 0% |
| 60% | GA over 0.5 | 80% |
| 20% | GA over 1.5 | 40% |
| 20% | GA over 2.5 | 40% |
| 0% | GA over 3.5 | 20% |
| 0% | GA over 4.5 | 20% |
Over 2.5 Total Goals – The average total goals when Chelsea plays at home is 2.00, and when Aston Villa plays away, it’s 4.33. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and their recent high-scoring matches, there’s a good chance the game could see more than 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa to Score in the Second Half – Aston Villa has a 67% scoring rate in the second half when playing away. Given their tendency to score later in the game and Chelsea’s 60% conceding rate, it’s plausible that Aston Villa could find the net in the second half.
Total Corners Over 9.5 – Both teams have shown a propensity for winning corners in their matches. Chelsea averages 6.60 corners per game, while Aston Villa averages 5.00. Combining their averages, we get 11.60, which is above the 9.5 threshold. This suggests that the match could see a high number of corners.
Draw or Aston Villa to Win (Double Chance) – Chelsea has not been in the best form at home, with only one win in their last three home matches. On the other hand, Aston Villa has shown resilience in their away games. Given Chelsea’s recent struggles and Aston Villa’s decent away form, there’s a possibility that Chelsea might not secure a win. A double chance bet covers the possibility of a draw, and an Aston Villa win.
Liverpool v West Ham Utd
Match Details: Sun, 24-Sep-23
Kick-off: 14:00
Betting Odds: Home: 2/5 Draw: 4/1 Away: 6/1
Liverpool v West Ham Utd Betting Predictions
Liverpool is yet to taste defeat this season, picking up from where they left off at the end of last season. A 1-1 draw with Chelsea on matchday 1 is the only time they have dropped points. After a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth, West Ham won their next three games but suffered a 3-1 home defeat against the reigning champions Manchester City last week.
Liverpool to Win – Liverpool has been in strong form, especially at home. They have won both of their home matches this season, scoring an average of three goals per game at home and conceding only 0.5 on average. While performing decently away, West Ham has conceded an average of one goal per game in their away matches. The Reds are the favourites to win, given Liverpool’s current form and home advantage.
Over 2.5 Total Goals – Both teams tend to score and concede. Liverpool’s home matches have an average of 3.5 total goals, while West Ham’s away matches have an average of 3 total goals. Given the attacking prowess of both teams, it’s likely that the match will see more than 2.5 goals.
| Liverpool v West Ham Over/Under Stats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | Total | Stat | West Ham | |
| GF+GA over 0.5 | 100% | 100% | GF+GA over 0.5 | 100% |
| GF+GA over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | GF+GA over 1.5 | 100% |
| GF+GA over 2.5 | 100% | 84% | GF+GA over 2.5 | 67% |
| GF+GA over 3.5 | 50% | 42% | GF+GA over 3.5 | 33% |
| GF+GA over 4.5 | 0% | 0% | GF+GA over 4.5 | 0% |
| GF+GA over 5.5 | 0% | 0% | GF+GA over 5.5 | 0% |
Both Teams to Score – West Ham has scored in all their away matches this season, and Liverpool has conceded in 50% of their home matches. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams, it’s probable that both teams will find the back of the net.
Over 9.5 Total Corners – Liverpool averages 11 total corners in their home matches, while West Ham averages 16.67 total corners in their away matches. Both teams have consistently surpassed the 9.5 corners mark, making this a solid bet.
Mohamed Salah to Score -Salah has been one of Liverpool’s top scorers, netting two goals in the league so far. The Egyptian has been in excellent form, with goal involvement in every game this season. His two goals came against Bournemouth and Aston Villa. He also provided assists against Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa and two in the last game against Wolves. Although he is not renowned for shooting from distance, bet365 is offering 20/1 for him to score from outside the box.
Burnley v Manchester Utd
Match Details: Sat, 23-Sep-23
Kick-off: 20:00
Betting Odds: Home: 10/3 Draw: 16/5 Away: 7/10
Burnley v Manchester Utd Betting Predictions
Burnley’s Lyle Foster is serving a three-game suspension after being sent off against Nottingham Forest. Michael Obafemi, Darko Churlinov, and Hjalmar Ekdal are also unavailable. Vitinho is doubtful for the match. Manchester United’s manager, Erik ten Hag, will have several returning players for this match. Raphael Varane and Mason Mount might return to the squad. Due to injuries, Tyrell Malacia, Amad Diallo, Luke Shaw, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are sidelined. Harry Maguire is doubtful after facing a muscle issue during the Champions League match against Bayern Munich.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Both Burnley and Manchester Utd have shown the ability to score in their recent matches. Burnley has scored in 75% of their matches, while Manchester Utd has scored in 80% of theirs. Additionally, both teams have a conceding rate of 100% in their respective home and away matches, indicating that their defences are not a strong point.
Over 2.5 Total Goals – The average total goals for Burnley’s home matches is 4.67, and for Manchester Utd’s away matches, it’s 3.00. Both these averages are above 2.5, suggesting that matches involving these teams tend to be high-scoring.
Manchester Utd to Win or Draw (Double Chance) – despite their recent form, Manchester Utd is traditionally a stronger side than Burnley. Burnley has not won any of their last four matches, while Manchester Utd has won 2 of their last 5. Given the current form and historical strength, Manchester Utd has a good chance to either win or at least secure a draw. However, it does show how much United are struggling this year that I’d advise the safety net of the draw. United have lost eight of their last twelve games.
Over 9.5 Total Corners – The average total corners for Burnley’s home matches is 10.67, and for Manchester Utd’s away matches, it’s 13.00. These averages are above 9.5, indicating that games involving these teams tend to have many corners.
First Half – Over 1.5 Goals – Reasoning: Both teams tend to score in the first half. Burnley has a 100% rate for GF+GA over 1.5 at HT in their home matches, and Manchester Utd has a 50% rate in their away matches. This suggests that there’s a good chance we’ll see at least two goals in the first half.
