Premier League Week 9: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews
Premier League football returns after the international break due to the Euro 2024 qualifiers, and there are some great-looking fixtures. It’s a case of local rivals reunited as Liverpool host Everton, and Chelsea plays Arsenal. The late fixture on Saturday is the battle of the Uniteds with Sheffield against Manchester. Join our resident football expert, Luke Andrews, as he shares his betting tips for selected Premier League games.
Local rivalries take centre stage on Saturday with two local derbies. In the early kick-off, Liverpool, who are just three points off the pace, take on neighbours Everton, who have been inconsistent this season.
In the 3 pm kick-offs, the standout fixture is champions Manchester City, who start the weekend in 3rd playing a home tie against high-flying Brighton, who are just two points and three places behind them.
There are two televised late games on Saturday: the London derby between Chelsea and Arsenal and the 8 pm kick-off between Sheffield United and Manchester United.
Join me as I perform a deep dive into the statistics that could give you the upper hand in Premier League betting this weekend.
Premier League Betting – Liverpool v Everton
One of the weekend’s biggest games is the enticing clash between Liverpool v Everton. If football games were decided simply on statistics, then Liverpool should walk this one, but as we know, anything can and often does happen, especially when football betting. Klopp’s men might be in form, but Everton would love a win over their neighbours.
Liverpool to Win
Liverpool has an impressive home record, picking up an average of 3 Points Per Game in their three matches played at home. They also won all their home games so far. However, It may not be as straightforward as it seems, as Everton have enjoyed success on their travels with three wins and a draw in their last four in all competitions.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
Liverpool and Everton have a 100% percentage of their games going over 2.5 goals. Liverpool has 100% of their home games over 2.5 goals, and Everton has 100% of their away games over 2.5 goals.
Both Teams to Score
Liverpool has a 67% rate of both teams scoring in their home games, and Everton has a 67% rate in their away games. This stat suggests that both teams are likely to score. The last time Everton failed to score on the road was in the 4-0 defeat by Aston Villa in their first away trip of the season.
Liverpool to Score in Both Halves
In their home games, Liverpool has a 100% scoring rate in both halves. Given their strong offensive performance, they will likely score in both halves. It might be worth covering Everton in the same market, as they have scored in both halves in 67% of their away games.
Over 9.5 Corners
Liverpool has an average of 8.00 corners at home and 5.88 in total, while Everton has an average of 5.63 corners and 5.33 away. The sum of their average corners is well above 9.5. Liverpool has a 100% rate of going over 9.5 corners at home and a 62% rate in total. Everton has a 62% rate of going over 9.5 corners and 67% away. Both teams have a strong tendency to go over 9.5 corners.
Don’t they tend to be dirty draws Liverpool v Everton local derby’s?
— Jeffrey Parkes (@JeffreySParkes) October 20, 2023
The red card market might also be worth considering. Liverpool have struggled with discipline this campaign, and the Merseyside Derby has seen its fair share of cards in the past.
Premier League Betting – Manchester City v Brighton
Manchester City are struggling by their high standards, losing three of their last four in all competitions. They will face Brighton, who themselves are winless in their previous four (two draws, two defeats) in all competitions.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
Both teams have a high average of goals scored and conceded. Manchester City averages 2.67 goals at home, while Brighton averages 2.67 goals away. The stats suggest a high-scoring game.
bet365 are offering a BET Boost of 9/2 for Julian Alvarez and Erling Haaland, having over 1.5 shots on target and over three goals in the game.
Manchester City to Win
Manchester City has a strong home record, winning all 3 of their home matches this season. Brighton, while strong, has lost one of their away games. City’s form at home makes them the favourites.
Both Teams to Score
Brighton has scored in all of their away games, and Manchester City has also scored in all of their home games, meaning both teams have a 100% scoring rate in their respective home and away matches.
Manchester City to Score First
Manchester City has scored first in 100% of their home games, while Brighton has conceded first in 33% of their away games. The stats indicate that City is more likely to open the scoring.
“For those punters that like a riskier bet, bet365 are offering 16/1 for Phil Foden to score from outside the box. The 23-year-old is not afraid to take shots from range, so it’s worth a side bet.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.
Over 8.5 Total Corners
Both teams have a high average of corners in their matches. Manchester City averages 4.33 corners at home, and Brighton averages 4.67 corners away. The combined average suggests that the total corners could easily go over 8.5.
Premier League Betting – Newcastle v Crystal Palace
Newcastle United finished in 4th last year and will want a similar result this campaign. They face Crystal Palace, who are flying high, just a point and a place behind the Magpies.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
Newcastle Utd has an average of 3.00 goals per match at home, while Crystal Palace has an average of 2.00 goals per match away. The league average is 3.00 goals per match. Given these stats, it’s likely that the match will feature at least three goals.
Newcastle Utd to Score First
Newcastle Utd has scored first in 100% of their home matches, while Crystal Palace has conceded first in 25% of their away matches. This stat suggests that Newcastle is likely to open the scoring.
Both Teams to Score
Newcastle Utd has a scoring rate of 100% at home, and Crystal Palace has a scoring rate of 100% away. Both teams have a 50% rate of both teams scoring in their respective home and away matches, making this a likely outcome.
Newcastle Utd to Win
Newcastle Utd has won 75% of their home matches and is currently slightly ahead of Crystal Palace in the league standings. Crystal Palace has won 50% of their away matches. Newcastle’s strong home form suggests they are more likely to succeed.
Over 9.5 Corners
Newcastle Utd averages 11.00 total corners per home match, and Crystal Palace averages 11.00 total corners per away match. Both teams have a 75% rate of having over 9.5 total corners in their respective home and away matches.
Premier League Betting – Chelsea v Arsenal
Games between Chelsea and Arsenal are usually eventful, and I expect this game to be no different. Chelsea’s struggles of last season have continued this campaign, but there are green shoots of recovery, whereas Arsenal would love to beat their neighbours and could go top of the table.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
Both Chelsea and Arsenal have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring matches. Arsenal’s average goals per game (GF+GA) away is 2.00, while Chelsea’s at home is 1.75. The league average is 3.00, suggesting that there’s a good chance of seeing more than 2.5 goals.
Arsenal to Score First
Arsenal has scored first in 100% of their away matches this season. On the other hand, Chelsea has conceded first in 75% of their home games. This makes Arsenal a strong candidate to score the opening goal.
Both Teams to Score
Chelsea has a home scoring rate of 50%, and Arsenal has an away scoring rate of 100%. Given both teams’ attacking capabilities, it’s likely that both will find the back of the net.
Arsenal to Win or Draw (Double Chance)
Arsenal is currently on a strong run, undefeated in their last eight matches and winning all 3 of their away games. Chelsea has been less consistent at home, winning only 25% of their matches. A double-chance bet on Arsenal to win or draw could offer good value.
Over 8.5 Total Corners
Both teams have shown a tendency to win corners, with Chelsea averaging 5.50 corners at home and Arsenal averaging 8.33 corners away. The combined average suggests the match could easily exceed 8.5 total corners.
Premier League Betting – Sheffield United v Manchester United
Manchester United started their campaign slowly last year, and that pattern is repeating this season. Although they have had wins, they have been far from convincing in them. Therefore, they may feel the trip to Bramall Lane is coming at the right time, with the Blades winless and bottom of the table.
Over 2.5 Total Goals
Both Sheffield Utd and Manchester Utd have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring games. Sheffield Utd’s home games have an average of 4.00 total goals, while Manchester Utd’s away games have an average of 2.33 total goals. The league average is around 3.00 goals per match.
Manchester Utd to Win
Sheffield Utd has been struggling, especially at home, with no wins in their last four home matches. On the other hand, Manchester Utd has managed to win 4 out of their last eight games. The form and quality of the squad suggest that Manchester Utd is more likely to secure a win.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No
Sheffield Utd has failed to score in 50% of their home matches, and Manchester Utd has kept a clean sheet in 33% of their away games. Given Sheffield Utd’s poor scoring record, it’s possible that only one team will score.
Manchester Utd to Score in Both Halves
Manchester Utd has a scoring rate of 67% in the first half and 67% in the second half in their away games. Sheffield Utd has a conceding rate of 100% in the second half at home. This stat suggests that Manchester Utd is likely to score in both halves.
Under 10.5 Corners
Sheffield Utd’s home games have an average of 10.00 total corners, while Manchester Utd’s away games have an average of 13.33. However, considering Sheffield Utd’s lower average, it might be a good bet to go for under 10.5 corners for this particular match.
Marcus Rashford scored a great goal in England’s 3-1 win over Italy. The goal will do wonders for his confidence, so the 21/20 for him to score at any time offered by BetTarget seems good value, effectively doubling your stake if he does.
