The Polls Love Israel in 2023 Eurovision
The Eurovision Song Contest will light up TV screens on five continents via 42 broadcasters this Saturday. With an estimated viewing audience of 160 million people, the live event is guaranteed to generate a king’s ransom in betting turnover.
But who will be crowned as the 2023 Eurovision winners? If the betting is accurate, the result is a forecast finish for Sweden and Finland in that order. Both countries successfully navigated their way through the first semi-final on Tuesday and, at 4/7 (Sweden) and 3/1 (Finland), the two countries take 89 percent of the book with most Eurovsion betting sites.
Israel’s Noa Kirel can impress the jury voters helping her to climb toward the top of Saturday’s Eurovision scoreboard. ©GettyImages
Tuesday night’s Eurovision Show was a particularly strong semi-final contest. From it, Norway and Israel also emerged – two countries that reside in the top six of the betting. And it is one of these, Israel, that we like as a betting proposition in several markets.
The Jury Will Not Be Out Long
At 22 years of age, Israel’s candidate Noa Kirel has already achieved a lot. A child star on stage and screen, she has had four number-one hits in her native country and has a recording contract with an American record label, Atlantic Records.
Unsurprisingly her Eurovision Song – an upbeat pop track called ‘Unicorn’ that features a dance break and is performed in English with a few lines in Hebrew – is highly produced, and Noa is a slick performer.
Israel’s tune and performance will not appeal to the camp Eurovision fans or those that enjoy a novelty act. But ‘Unicorn’ will find its fans and voters amongst the younger generation, and it looks likely to achieve top-six status amongst televoters.
Vitally the jury voters – who produce half the points from every country in the final (but not in this year’s semi-finals) – are sure to be enamored with the artist and song. It is very easy to envisage Israel will finish second or third to Sweden’s ‘Tattoo’ (performed by Loreen, who is already a Eurovision winner) in this half of the vote.
Incidentally, it is predicted that Finland’s entertaining performer, Käärijä, will win the televote part of the final. He was just 2/5 to win the first semi-final because it was decided, for the first time, by public phone votes only. The votes for both semi-finals are kept secret until the final has concluded.
The Record Books and the Polls Agree
Israel has participated in the Eurovision Song Contest 44 times since making its debut in 1973. It has won the contest four times: 1978, 1979, 1998, and, most recently, in 2018 courtesy of Netta’s song, ‘Toy’.
In addition to the victories, Israel has taken a further nine top-six finishes. These figures suggest Israel is generally a popular country amongst Eurovision voters. It means an exceptional song is not needed for the nation to feature prominently.
But the biggest form pointer of all is the polls. Eurovision fanatics study songs for weeks and months on end. They debate and share their opinions via polls which, year after year, prove themselves to be an invaluable guide for anyone placing a bet on the contest.
Many online Eurovision polls have impressive sample sizes courtesy of voters from all over Europe. Consequently, they are genuine form-pointers that punters should take on board – as they have invariably proven accurate in recent years.
This year, every meaningful online Eurovision poll has Israel placed in its top five. The biggest poll has Israel in clear third position with nine percent of the overall vote. That may be half of the percentage claimed by the favorites, Sweden, and seven percentage points short of Finland, but no other country can boast more than six percent of the overall poll.
Therein, when compared to the odds on offer, Israel stands out as a great each-way bet at YetiBet’s 33/1 (1/5th odds positions 1-2-3-4). And there is plenty to like about bet365’s 11/10 quote on a top-5 finish. It is a long shot, but William Hill’s 40/1 on Israel winning the jury vote at 40/1 is also worthy of some small each-way support.
