The Ultimate Betting Guide to SPOTY 2024

by , 18 June 2024

2024 has the potential to be a massive year for British sport and British sportspeople. England is joint-favourite to win Euro 2024, and Team GB is predicted to claim 60 medals at the Paris Olympics across 20 or more sports. Anything less than a dozen golds will be considered a disappointment.

With so much sport and potential success ahead, identifying the defining moment that will result in an individual being awarded the BBC Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) in December is no easy task. To cloud matters, last year’s winner, Mary Earps, demonstrated that winning a global title is not vital for SPOTY success.

Mary Earps pictured at the 2023 Sports Personality of the Year awards.

2023 Sports Personality of the Year winner Mary Earps won the Golden Glove award at the Women’s World Cup, but her country did not take the title. ©GettyImages

Historically, track and field athletes have won SPOTY 18 times. Formula 1 drivers have taken the famous trophy home on eight occasions. Representatives from football and tennis have claimed seven titles. As 2024 is an Olympic year, the destination of the 2024 award should be easy to predict. It is not.

Keely Hodgkinson, the shortest-priced track and field athlete in the Sports Personality betting, can be backed on 14/1. To quantify the complexity of the event, darts player Luke Littler is 5/1 to win the prize. At 17, he would be the youngest ever SPOTY recipient – and a darts player has finished in the top three of the event only once in its 70-year history.

In this feature, we look at the leading contenders for SPOTY 2024. With over 30 sportspeople listed, it could be concluded that the winner is in here somewhere. Not so. 2021 SPOTY winner Emma Raducanu was not quoted in the betting until the start of Tennis’s 2021 US Open. When she won the title in September, the youngster was trading as a long odds-on favourite.

History Suggests Football Does Not Have a SPOTY Free Kick

Fifteen years have passed since a male footballer last won the SPOTY award, and 2021 was the last time a male player made the final six stage. That footballer was Raheem Sterling, who scored three goals in Euro 2020 as part of an English team that advanced to the final. Nevertheless, he failed to earn enough votes to achieve a top-three position in the BBC show.

The history books do not bode well for a footballer taking the award in 2024. However, one probably will if England majestically outplays all rivals and wins Euro 2024. The big question is, which of England’s 26-man squad will outshine his teammates to earn a SPOTY shortlisting and then win more votes than rival nominees?

The top Sports Personality betting sites quote England’s midfielder, Jude Bellingham, on 5/2 odds to win SPOTY 2024, while his team is 4/1 to win Euro 2024. Experts can rightly argue that the second betting opportunity is the better proposition from a value perspective. Given the size of the squad and the likelihood of England winning the competition, we believe that no footballer represents value in the SPOTY betting.

Backing a Footballer? Pick Your Spots

For simplicity, we have listed the top 25-plus individuals in the SPOTY betting in price order. However, our expert panel has also divided all contenders into categories – signified by a star rating – that they believe indicate the value their odds represent. Topping the betting but only receiving two stars is Jude Bellingham.

The youngster got England off to a dream Euro start in a dominant first-half performance against Serbia. However, some will argue that goalkeeper Jordan Pickford played a more significant part in the 1-nil victory. Hypothetically, if he were to do a Mary Earps – she won the Golden Glove award at the Women’s World Cup while her country did not take the big prize – where would Pickford stand in the SPOTY betting?

Mark, Milly, and Keely Earn Three Stars Plus

Jude Bellingham (5/2). Needs to keep scoring goals and England to win Euro 2024. Quite simply, the value is not there. **

Luke Littler (5/1). By December, his run to the final of the World Darts Championship will be a distant memory. And all major darts tournaments are exclusive to Sky. It is a fact that traditionally hinders SPOTY contenders (from darts and other Sky televised sports). Littler is desperate value given that handicap and darts record in SPOTY. *

Harry Kane (12/1). Fans, voters, and even the selection panel will be torn between the England captain and other players from a Euro 2024 winning side. The votes could be split between two or more footballers, which would half an individual’s chances. **

Keely Hodgkinson (14/1). A gold medal performance in the European Athletics Championships means the 22-year-old already has credentials deserving of a SPOTY nomination. Hodgkinson’s odds will crumble if she can improve on her 800-metre silver medal at the last Olympic Games. She is a huge contender, given athletics record in SPOTY and this bubbly girl’s personality. ****

Mark Cavendish (14/1). A shortlisting surely hinges on the veteran cyclist winning a stage of the Tour de France and beating Eddy Merckx’s record of 34 Tour de France Stages. Winning SPOTY 13 years ago, the 39-year-old would be a remarkable dual winner. It is not beyond the realms of possibility and odds compilers at dedicated cycling betting sites will be eagerly watching the sprint stages of this year’s Tour. ***

Phil Foden (16/1). Another English Euro 2024 squad member who can take votes off of a teammate if more than one footballer is nominated for the SPOTY award. Foden was off to a bad start with a tame effort in that competition, so he needs an exceptional day at the office. **

Molly Caudery (16/1). Pole-vaulter Molly Caudery has already claimed a bronze medal at the 2024 European Athletics Championships in Rome. A gold in Paris will put her on most people’s shortlist, and she is great in front of television cameras – a quality which is a guaranteed vote winner. Only gold in Paris will get her onto the SPOTY stage but Olympic Games betting sites suggest victory possible. ***

Sink or Swim Time for Mid-Priced Contenders

Adam Peaty (22/1). Gold medal winner in the 100-metre breaststroke at the 2016 Summer Olympics – Peaty was the first male British swimmer in 24 years to retain his title at the next Olympics. An eight-time World Champion and a sixteen-time European Champion, the word ‘legend’ springs to mind. However, in February, the 29-year-old ‘only’ took bronze at this year’s World Championships. Furthermore, Peaty has not won SPOTY before (finished third in 2021), suggesting that the public is not currently enamoured with swimming. **

Josh Kerr (22/1). A broad Scottish accent is no handicap in SPOTY voting – as demonstrated by three-time winner Andy Murray – so Kerr, bronze medal winner over 1,500 metres at the Tokyo Olympics, has every chance if shortlisted for SPOTY 2024. Looking better than ever this year, he is a genuine gold medal contender in Paris. At the odds, the runner probably represents fair each-way betting value right now. ****

Katarina Johnson-Thompson (28/1). Unlike her teammates, Johnson-Thompson is not eloquent before the cameras, which has previously harmed her in the popularity stakes. Third in 2023’s Sports Personality of the Year following World Championship victory, the heptathlete must win Paris gold to have a chance. Recently forced to withdraw from the European Championships with an injury/niggle, her supporters will have concerns. **

Bukayo Saka (28/1). In his 24 starts for England, Saka is credited with 27 goal contributions. But there are too many Euro 2024 England players on this list! **

Delan Rice (28/1). Another England Euro 2024 player and another supremely talented football player who could prove decisive in victory for the nation with a barren trophy cabinet. *

James Anderson (28/1). Forty-two at the next SPOTY awards, the retiring cricketer claimed his 700th test wicket in March. In some years, he may have received a ‘thank you’ SPOTY shortlisting from selectors for his service to sport, but 2024 is too competitive. *

Max Whitlock (33/1). Another athlete set to retire in 2024, the gymnast has taken medals at the last three Olympic Games. Three golds and three bronze medals have also seen him earn three SPOTY nominations in the past. He finished seventh in 2014 and 2016 and eighth in 2015. Only six sportspeople are nominated in the modern era – albeit the BBC change their rules on a whim – so even two golds at the Paris might see Whitlock miss the party. **

Jordan Pickford (33/1). There are five post-tournament awards at the Euros, and none are for ‘best goalkeeper’. Decisive saves in a penalty shootout situation could still see England’s last line of defence go into the SPOTY hat from England’s Euro 2024 squad no matter what stage of the competition it reaches. ***

Cole Palmer (33/1). Yes, another England footballer! He never made it to the pitch in England’s opening match against Serbia and another that needs to do something special to make it onto the radar. *

Title Aspirations but Not This Year

Lando Norris (40/1). Two reasons why Norris is unlikely to get a shortlisting: He is 16/1 to take Formula 1’s World Drivers’ Championship, and F1 is under contract with Sky TV, which, like darts, is seemingly not a positive with SPOTY selectors and voters. It is a shame as the McLaren driver has shone in 2024. **

Mathew Hudson-Smith (40/1). Finished eighth in the 400-metre final at the 2016 Olympic Games, but nothing suggests the 31-year-old runner can go seven places better in 2024. As only a gold will do, he is easily dismissed. *

Rory McIlroy (40/1). The Northern Irish golfer was the favourite to win SPOTY in 2014 but was comprehensively outvoted by Lewis Hamilton and finished second. In the aftermath of the US Open, the Daily Mail ran a story that began: “Rory McIlroy storms out after ‘biggest choke in history of golf’ after missing two putts in final US Open round without congratulating [winner] Bryson DeChambeau.” Now, success in the Open Championship on the final hole from a seemingly impossible position may not be enough to get him to the BBC’s studios in December. *

Jack Grealish (40/1). A footballer who is not part of the 2024 Euro squad? Impossible to be tempted at five times his current odds! *

Anthony Joshua (40/1). He was 1/7 to win and 1/100 to finish in the top three, but ‘AJ’ came only fourth in the 2017 SPOTY voting. Unlikely to fight for, not alone win a title in 2024, the boxer is ridiculously short in the betting. *

Emma Finucane (50/1). The 21-year-old cyclist won sprint gold at the European Championships and has had a meteoric rise through the ranks. Olympic gold is needed to put herself in the SPOTY picture, but Team GB has become accustomed to winning several gold medals in track cycling at the Olympics. **

Proven Winners With Something to Prove

Jasmin Paris (50/1). It is great to see a national fell running champion in the betting and a candidate of a similar ilk, around-the-world yachtswoman Ellen MacArthur, was favourite to take SPOTY throughout 2005. She ultimately finished second. If Paris could get a nomination, she would have a defined set of supporters, providing a unique vote. However, it is difficult to see her shortlisted unless the BBC change their rules once again – and return to 2017 values when 12 people took to the SPOTY stage. **

Tyson Fury (50/1). Fourth in 2015 and 2020 (sixth in 2021) is a SPOTY veteran. The ‘Gypsy King’ came up short in his bid to become the first undisputed heavyweight champion in nearly 25 years in May. The certified all-time great has a rematch against Oleksandr Usyk scheduled for December 21st, but SPOTY nominations will be closed at that point. *

Tom Dean (50/1). The swimmer claimed two golds in Tokyo’s Olympics. Aged 24, he could be even better in 2024. However, Adam Peaty is more likely to get a SPOTY shortlisting if they both return from France with a gold medal. **

Trent Alexander-Arnold (50/1). Another footballer, another in Italy playing in the Euros. He earned detractors for his poor showing in England’s opening match against Serbia, so Alexander-Arnold now needs to produce a performance of biblical proportions. *

Dina Asher-Smith (50/1). Only 28 but the sprinter seems to have been around for ages. She took an Olympic relay bronze medal in 2016 and 2020 and has won a gold medal at every other major championship. Injury has plagued Asher-Smith for much of her career, and she has rarely been able to do herself justice at the Olympics.

However, Asher-Smith took gold at the 2024 European Championships – her first major title in five years – to show she is currently sound. With reigning Olympic champion Elaine Thompson-Herah under an injury cloud, the Brit’s chances of winning the blue riband 100 metres or 200 metres are better than ever. *****

Others to Consider in the Bigger Picture

At least one or two SPOTY contenders will emerge from the Paralympic Games. It makes a position amongst the six-person shortlist all the more difficult to reach. Inevitably, a place will be set aside for a Team GB track & field gold medal winner, and so much depends on England’s performance at Euro 2024.

Tennis players have an excellent record in SPOTY, winning four times in the past 11 years. As a result, Wimbledon success for the new British number one, 22-year-old Jack Draper (80/1), Andy Murray (66/1), or Emma Raducanu (40/1), would put them in prime position.

Do Not Ignore the Fanatical Northern Irish

Michael Dunlop claimed a four-timer at this year’s Isle of Man TT event to become the most successful rider in TT history. He eclipsed the longstanding record of his legendary uncle Joey Dunlop (26 wins) to extend his tally to 29 on the Mountain Course.

Sports Personality betting sites quote the Northern Irish rider on 50/1 to win the prize in 2024. Unless the BBC throws nominations open to ten or 12 candidates – and our experts believe there is a strong likelihood it will – Dunlop has little chance. If he gets an unexpected nomination, he will get a massive number of votes from his countryfolk.

In 2017, Jonathan Rea finished second in the Sports Personality of the Year ballot, claiming 80,567 votes. The outright winner, Mo Farrah, won the contest with 83,254 phone votes! In short, Northern Ireland has thousands of passionate motorcycling fans who are not afraid to pick up their phones and vote repeatedly for their idols.

What Is the Best Sports Personality Bet?

We have been led to Tom Daley – not based on the probability of him winning, but the value his odds represent. The diver won the Young Sports Personality of the Year award three times and finished runner-up in the main SPOTY event in 2021. He had already been a SPOTY finalist in 2009 and 2010.

This summer, the 66/1 shot will become the first British diver to compete at a fifth Olympics after finding fame as a 14-year-old in Beijing in 2008. He won individual bronze medals in the 10-metre platform at London 2012 and Tokyo 2020 and he also took third in the 10-metre synchro in Rio 2016.

In Tokyo 2020, Daley finally won Olympic gold (in the 10-metre synchro), where the married gay father of two was regularly spotted watching events in the grandstands while knitting! It helped to win popularity with the public. But, as the subject of many documentaries, Daley has always had a major profile.

More recently, he has fronted television shows such as 2022’s Tom Daley: Illegal to Be Me, where he visited the most homophobic countries in the Commonwealth to explore how gay athletes are facing extreme persecution. Daley’s personal YouTube channel has 1.18 million subscribers.

Popularity is not an issue for Daley. Those who decide on the SPOTY shortlists have already shown their endearment towards him. And so, if the 30-year-old can claim gold in the Paris Games, he will likely be among the final shortlisted six; thereafter, it will not be easy to keep him out of the top three positions.

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