Why Don’t the Bookies Agree With Mid Bedford Opinion Polls?
Labour may be 1/6 to win the most seats at the next General Election, but the party can be backed on odds of 9/4 to win the forthcoming Mid Bedfordshire by-election. The election was sparked following the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a Conservative MP for Mid Bedfordshire since 2005.
Ms Dorries – former Secretary of State for Digital Culture, Media and Sport – had been elected as an MP for the area five times since 2005. In the 2019 election, she won the seat with a majority of more than 24,600.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has already been canvassing for votes on doorsteps in the Mid-Bedfordshire constituency. ©Getty
As the Conservative Party has held this seat since 1931, success for the Tories at the October 19 vote would appear a formality. Not so; its candidate, 45-year-old Festus Akinbusoye, represents a party that is also 9/4 to win the vote.
So far, seven candidates have declared they will stand for the Mid Bedfordshire seat.
- Festus Akinbusoye – Conservative
- Dave Holland – Reform UK
- Emma Holland-Lindsay – Liberal Democrats
- Gareth Mackey – Independent
- Cade Sibley – Green Party
- Alistair Strathern – Labour
- Alan Victor – True and Fair Party
X Needs to Hit the Holland-Lindsay Spot
It is the Lib-Dem candidate, Emma Holland-Lindsay, that the political election betting sites favour. Born and raised in the county, she currently represents Leighton Buzzard on the Central Bedfordshire Council. She is the National Federation of Women’s Institutes’ head of public affairs and is responsible for the group’s campaigning and influencing efforts.
A late June survey conducted by Opinium – in the aftermath of Dorries announcing her impending resignation on June 9 – showed Holland-Lindsay fared worst of the ‘big three’ candidates.
Only 15 percent of those polled said they would put their X next to her name. It placed her behind Gareth Mackey, an Independent candidate that received 18 percent of the poll. Nevertheless, the Liberal Democrats are 5/4 to take the Mid Bedfordshire seat – and Mackey is 18/1.
Will Mid Bedfordshire Go Nuclear?
Bookmakers clearly have little or no faith in Opinium’s poll. It voiced the opinions of just 724 constituency residents. But her 5/4 odds equate to a 44.4 percent probability of Holland-Lindsay and her Liberal Democrat Party prevailing.
Underlining the task at hand, defeat for the Tories would represent the biggest by-election defeat in British history. The votes registered in this constituency during the 2019 General Election were 38,692 for the Conservatives, 14,028 for Labour, 8,171 for the Lib Dems and 2,478 for the Greens.
It is accepted governing parties tend to do worse in by-elections than general elections, but Rishi Sunak’s Party need a nuclear-reactor-style meltdown to lose its lead. Decimated it may be, but enough to lose the forthcoming by-election? Surely not.
Ignore the Bookies and Back the Polls
The political forecasting website ElectorialCalculus agrees. Its prediction for Mid Bedfordshire suggests the Conservatives will garner 21,541 votes, Labour will claim 19,506, and the Lib Dems will receive 7,594. It also declares the Conservatives have a 59 percent chance of holding this seat.
‘Labour will not be cooking up deals behind closed doors with other political parties’
Labour Party Chair Anneliese Dodds told #BBCBreakfast they believe they can win the by election caused by the resignation of former Conservative MP Nadine Dorrieshttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66630308 pic.twitter.com/6GrdCA6GUG
— BBC Breakfast (@BBCBreakfast) August 27, 2023
These figures mirror the opinion of respected political commentator Katy Balls, who wrote in iNews that a “toxic power tussle” between Labour and the Lib Dems might lead to a split of the anti-Conservative vote, allowing the Tories to stay in power.
Let us hope she is right because our editorial team has concluded that the Liberal Democrats represent a false favourite in this betting market. We are prepared to oppose the 5/4 market principles either on the betting exchanges or by backing both Labour and Conservative parties at 9/4 odds.
